Axis Cap on City Gas Co
Recommendation to Buy Mahanagar Gas with a target price of Rs1,580 per share
Recommendation to Reduce Gujarat Gas with a target price of Rs390 per share
Upgrade IGL to Buy with a target price of Rs224 per share
The City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector is expected to benefit from aggressive expansion
Favorable CNG economics compared to petrol/diesel
New CNG model launches are expanding the addressable market to approximately 55% of the PV industry volume
Government policies are supportive, and companies with higher exposure to CNG are expected to see the fastest growth in the value chain
No price hikes since Q3; focus on profit expansion through value engineering
MS on Voltas
Overweight rating with a target price of Rs1,556 per share
Strong performance in Room AC business in Q4 (specifics not provided)
Expected 15-18% medium-term CAGR in Commercial AC
Q4 is expected to be better than Q3 for Commercial Refrigerators
Air Coolers show strong momentum
Strategy to capture higher market share across channels with addition of in-shop demonstrators
CLSA on Voltas
Hold rating with a target price of Rs1,375 per share
Encouraging secondary sales indicated ahead of peak summer season on a high base
Market share losses early in the calendar year were more due to seasonality and geographical presence
Company expects to continue to grow ahead of the industry
Focus remains on absolute profit growth over profitability
Expectations to maintain high single-digit margin and absorb cost inflation through value engineering
Challenges related to compressor availability are not anticipated with moderate growth this year
Resolution of certification issues and domestic capacity build-up are crucial for the future
Jefferies on IndiGo
Buy rating with a target price of Rs5,700 per share
IndiGo alluded to a strong Q4 during the analyst meet based on pricing and passenger growth
Expected early double-digit capacity growth for FY26, similar to FY25
Expansion on international routes is a key growth driver ahead
Focus on tapping into growing international leisure and corporate demand
Management targets prudent allocation of ballooning free cash flow to maintain balance between growth and external risks
Nuvama on IndiGo
Hold rating with a target price of Rs4,768 per share
Industry passenger traffic expected to double by FY30 to 510 million (242 million in FY25)
IndiGo expects passenger traffic and capacity to grow in early double-digits in FY26
Q4FY25 likely to be better than earlier guidance due to higher PRASK
Share of international ASKMs anticipated to reach 40% in FY30 (28% in FY25)
Company boasts among the lowest CASK globally excluding fuel and forex at $337 (Oct’23–Sep’24)
Raising FY25–27 EPS by 8–13% based on positive guidance
HSBC on PI Industries
Hold rating, target price cut to Rs3,500 from Rs3,700 per share
Difficult phase continues as exports remain muted
Sustained weakness is a downside risk to valuation multiples
Company has entered a zone of uncertainty as core business remains muted
New businesses take time to scale up
Maintain hold amid lack of triggers
Nomura on DLF
Neutral rating, target price Rs700 per share
Ready for another strong year but wait for a better entry point
Expect pre-sales to reach over Rs20,000 crore in FY26 (16% YoY growth)
Annuity income expected to grow at 12% CAGR and OCF at 15% CAGR between FY25-FY27
Target price of Rs700 is based on SOTP, valuing DLF’s medium-term pipeline at Rs27,200 crore
Unutilized land bank valued at Rs75,200 crore
Rental assets in DLF Development Company and DLF’s share in rental arm DCCDL at a cumulative Rs43,600 crore
Key downside risk: slowdown in the NCR market or NRI demand
Key upside risk: stronger than expected launches or price appreciation
Nomura on Bajaj Finserv
Buy rating, target price Rs2,000 per share
Change in shareholding pattern following the exit of Allianz
Management mentioned that acquisition would be self-funded without external borrowings
With complete control, Bajaj Finserv plans to streamline decision-making
Bajaj Finserv plans to enhance branding and pursue new growth areas such as pensions
CLSA on ZEE Entertainment
Outperform rating, target price Rs170 per share
Stock trading at rock bottom 8x PE ratio
Believe advertising revenue-led growth will lead to stock rerating
Zee is India’s No. 2 TV network and is expanding its OTT platform Zee5
Zee’s EBITDA margin has widened by 9% from lows and it holds zero debt with Rs1,700 crore in cash
Even with 6% YoY ad growth, it is expected to deliver 22-33% EBITDA/PAT CAGRs in FY26-27
Zee’s market cap/sales ratio of 1x is at a 60-80% discount to competitors like Reliance Disney JV and Sun TV
Believe Zee’s stock could double over the next 12-24 months
Jefferies on Paytm
Hold rating, target price Rs850 per share
Government incentives for low-value UPI P2M transactions for FY25 are half of last year’s
Incentives are expected to decrease from 20 bps to 6 bps
If company’s incentives decrease proportionately, adjusted EBITDA for FY25 may be 50% below estimates
Expected 20-30% lower profits in FY26-27; 15% lower PBT in FY25
Watching for a switch to MDR-based charges for large merchants, which could boost profits and improve predictability
UBS on Consumer Durables
Adani Enterprises announced a JV to enter into metal products, cables, and wires
Competitive intensity for cables and wires sector continues to rise with the entry of a second large player
Capex plans for Adani in cables and wires are not known yet
This news is expected to have a negative sentiment on incumbents in the cables and wires segment (Polycab, KEI, Havells)
Macquarie on Uno Minda
Outperform rating, target price Rs1,157 per share
Diversified revenue mix and wide-ranging components portfolio are seen as medium-term positives
Upside revenue potential expected from deeper OEM relationships, including opportunities with Korean PV OEMs and new products with existing OEMs
CLSA on Jubilant Food
Turkish Lira depreciation is a potential risk for the company
Arm DP Eurasia operates in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
Arm DP Eurasia contributed 31% of group sales in Q3
Debt stands at Rs1,230 crore as of September 2024
Approximately 80% of the debt is expected to be payable from Turkish cash flow
Lira depreciation would lead to additional interest cost burden
YTD depreciation of the Turkish Lira could have a 3.5-4% impact on FY25 consolidated PAT
Depreciation in the Turkish Lira could also impact dividend payments by DP Eurasia
