According to the latest data from the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India’s sugar production for the current season is projected to be approximately 28 million tonnes (mt) for 2025-26, given that 520 mills have ceased sugarcane crushing since the season began on October 1, 2025. As of April 15, sugar production has reached 27.5 mt, with the remaining 19 mills—six of which are located in Uttar Pradesh—expected to end operations soon.
ISMA’s report indicated that sugar production had increased to 27.48 mt as of mid-April, up from 25.5 mt during the same period last year, marking an increase of 8%. There are currently 19 operational factories, a significant reduction from 38 mills functional at this point last year. Some mills in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may continue operations during the special season starting in June or July, potentially adding 0.3 mt to the total production.
Industry expert GK Sood stated, “With only 19 factories operational, sugar production is unlikely to surpass 28 mt. While ethanol supplied to oil marketing companies (OMCs) until March stood at about 2.1 mt (in terms of sucrose diversion), it is improbable that this will reach 3 mt for the season. Nevertheless, strong export demand from Afghanistan, African nations, and Sri Lanka is expected to lead to sugar exports of around 1 mt.”
In regard to individual states, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF) noted that sugar output in Maharashtra, the leading state for sugar production, increased by 23% to 9.92 mt compared to 8.06 mt the previous year. Meanwhile, Karnataka, the third-largest producer, saw a 17% rise to 4.71 mt from 4.04 mt. Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest producer, experienced a 2% decline to 8.92 mt from 9.1 mt.
As the sugar season approaches its conclusion, the industry is advocating for a timely revision of the Minimum Selling Price (MSP). The rising costs of production combined with weak ex-mill realizations are causing financial strain on mills and increasing delays in cane payments. ISMA emphasized the need for “a timely MSP revision, aligned with current cost structures, to restore financial viability, ensure prompt farmer payments, and stabilize the market—without imposing an additional fiscal burden on the government.”
On the topic of ethanol procurement, ISMA has urged the government to expedite ethanol blending in light of increasing crude oil prices and shifting geopolitical factors. The organization has proposed advancing the roadmap beyond E20 to higher blends such as E22, E25, E27, and E85/E100, given that India currently has an estimated production capacity of around 2,000 crore litres of ethanol, including from grain-based distilleries. ISMA has also called for a quicker rollout of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) and GST rationalization to encourage their adoption.
Furthermore, the organization highlighted that the absence of revisions in ethanol procurement prices for sugarcane-based feedstocks and the lower allocation to the sector have resulted in a mismatch between installed capacity and domestic demand, leading to underutilized distillation capacity and inventory accumulation. A timely price revision for the future is being sought.
Data from NFCSF indicates that the all-India average sugar recovery (the sugar yield from sugarcane) was higher this season at 9.55% as of April 15 compared to 9.37% the previous season. For example, a mill operating at a 10% recovery rate would produce 10 kg of sugar from 100 kg (1 quintal) of sugarcane.
The article was published on April 16, 2026.
