The recent decision by the United States to increase the H-1B visa application fee to $100,000 is expected to influence stock market activity this week, alongside trade talks and a reduction in GST rates, analysts stated. Additionally, investors will be monitoring trends in global equity markets.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that the markets will first react to the US’s announcement of the annual H-1B fee, made late Friday. The IT services sector, which is already facing challenges from tariff-related issues, might experience further pressure due to this new fee, especially as trade negotiations are ongoing.
The Indian IT sector, valued at $285 billion, will face additional challenges in its primary outsourcing market, as the US’s decision to hike H-1B visa fees could disrupt business continuity for onshore projects. Notably, Indian tech professionals represent over 70% of H-1B visa holders.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, expressed concerns that this fee increase could significantly raise costs for US clients and diminish demand for Indian tech talent, thereby affecting the revenue outlook for major IT companies such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro.
On the domestic front, traders are advised to keep an eye on the rupee and crude oil prices, which are also crucial factors for Indian equities. Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to lead an official delegation to the US for trade discussions on September 22. These talks aim to advance negotiations for a mutually beneficial trade agreement.
Following a recent visit from US Trade Representative officials, positive discussions on various aspects of the trade deal were reported, with a commitment to intensifying efforts moving forward.
In another significant development, the GST Council has announced that starting September 22, prices on about 375 items—including kitchen staples, electronics, medicines, equipment, and automobiles—will decrease due to reduced GST rates. This change, aligned with the beginning of the Navaratri festival, is expected to benefit consumers.
Market participants are also tracking Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who acquired equities worth ₹390.74 crore on the previous Friday, as they gauge trading activity. Globally, attention will shift toward key US macroeconomic indicators, including GDP data, manufacturing and services PMI, and the PCE Price Index.
Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital, remarked that with the festive season approaching in India, the market’s reaction to the new GST rate cuts and evolving consumer demand trends will be closely watched. Despite global market volatility, the primary market remains active with a steady stream of IPOs.
Last week, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) benchmark index rose by 721.53 points, or 0.88%, while the Nifty index increased by 213.05 points, or 0.84%.
