The ongoing western disturbance weather pattern, known for bringing rains and snowfall, along with a similar one predicted for next week, is expected to reduce the risks for the wheat crop in North-West and North India. This is despite the above-normal temperatures recorded across the country in February, a month that also saw deficient rainfall.
According to D S Pai, ADGM at the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country can anticipate normal to above-normal temperatures in March, as per the seasonal weather forecast for March-May.
Pai mentioned that experts monitoring the crop conditions indicated that the wheat crop has not been significantly impacted so far. The use of heat-resistant wheat varieties has been beneficial, with almost 67% of the area being sown with such varieties.
With a rainfall deficiency of 59% for the country during January-February, except for certain regions like Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Karnataka, February also witnessed above-normal temperatures in most parts of the country, excluding the northern part of North-East India and some areas of the Southern Peninsula.
The main weather events in February were the western disturbances that brought rain and snow to the North West and parts of North India. While there were 7 such disturbances this year compared to the climatological average of 5 to 6, they were relatively weak. The current western disturbance has caused significant rainfall and snowfall activity, with another one expected in the first week of March.
Regarding the impact of the weather on crops like wheat, Pai noted that there has not been a significant impact so far. Although there may be some impact due to the March climate, overall, no major consequences are expected as temperatures are not expected to be excessively high until mid-March.
Pai also mentioned that the cold wave was largely absent across the northern region this year, with night temperatures warmer than normal in most parts of North and Central India. Additionally, the Indo-Gangetic plain did not experience much fog due to the above-normal temperatures.
Addressing the La Nina conditions, Pai stated that while there was a temporary La Nina-like condition for a month or two, most model forecasts indicate a rise in temperatures along the equatorial Pacific region. This suggests that La Nina may not persist beyond April, transitioning into a neutral ENSO condition.
Furthermore, Pai explained that while La Nina conditions are favorable for the monsoon, the warming trend in the Equatorial Pacific implies that La Nina may not continue during the monsoon season. The most likely scenario going forward is a neutral ENSO condition, with low chances of an El Nino event. Among the three categories—La Nina, ENSO neutral, and ENSO El Nino—El Nino has the lowest probability, according to Pai.
