Exit polls conducted on Wednesday indicated a likely comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, while the UDF is forecasted to unseat the LDF in Kerala. The AINRC-BJP alliance is expected to retain its position in Puducherry, although predictions for Tamil Nadu and West Bengal varied significantly.
The most surprising prediction came from Axis My India, which projected that the Tamil Nadu political contest would be closely contested between Vijay’s TVK, anticipated to secure between 98 and 120 seats, and the DMK alliance, expected to capture 92 to 110 seats. In this scenario, the AIADMK-led NDA would be relegated to a distant third in the 234-member assembly. In contrast, three other exit polls suggested that the DMK-led coalition would maintain a majority, albeit reduced from the previous election cycle.
In West Bengal, while Axis My India refrained from releasing its findings, other pollsters hesitated to publish results. However, one poll by P Marq suggested the BJP could potentially secure a majority in the 294-member assembly, while Matrize indicated the BJP might hold an advantage, albeit without a majority. Conversely, People’s Pulse forecasted a decisive win for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), positioning Mamata Banerjee for a fourth consecutive term.
All four exit polls projected the NDA to likely secure a two-thirds majority in the 126-member Assam assembly, potentially marking the BJP’s first independent majority in the northeastern state. The Congress-led alliance was estimated to win between 24 and 40 seats.
In Kerala, the prevailing consensus among exit polls is that the UDF will emerge victorious, with projections ranging from a low of 70 seats according to Matrize to a high of 90 seats as estimated by Axis My India. The LDF is predicted to secure a maximum of 69 seats, which would signify the first time since 1977 that the Left has not held office in any state.
Exit polls in India have a mixed track record; official election results will be announced on Monday, May 4.
