Silver has broken out of a multi-year consolidation phase, signalling the early stages of a long-term structural uptrend.
In India, prices of silver futures hit a new mark of ₹2 lakh per kg on the Multi-Commodity Exchange.
“Silver extended its golden run in 2025 after delivering more than 20 per cent return in 2024. Prices posted their highest yearly gain of more than 100 per cent since 1979,” said Axis Direct, the investment platform of Axis Bank.
Silver has broken out of a multi-year consolidation phase, signalling the early stages of a long-term structural uptrend. “The monthly chart highlights a massive Rounding Bottom breakout formation stretching from 2011 to 2025. The white metal has broken the neckline resistance at $50 level, and surged to a new all-time high of $64,” it said.
At 1925 hours IST, silver was quoted at $64.20 an ounce. Silver futures, due for delivery in March, ruled at $64.49. In India, spot prices of gold ended the week at ₹1,95,180 a kg. With taxes, prices are above ₹2 lakh a kg. On MCX, March silver futures were quoted ₹2,01,164 a kg. SIlver has gained over 120 per cent this year.
The rally of prices in the futures market indicates that the supply shortage may persist for longer than expected. This is because the silver market is facing a deficit for the fifth consecutive year, and New York-based The Silver Institute says 2025 could end with a deficit of 125 million ounces.
In fact, silver prices in the Indian spot market have rallied 25 per cent in the past month to from ₹1,56,705 .
The Silver Academy, which makes people aware about silver’s role, said spot silver in China was trading at $2 per ounce higher than benchmark London Bullion Market Association rates. “Physical silver — real, deliverable bars — are leaving western vaults by the tonne and heading east. Shanghai inventories are climbing; Western inventories are draining,” it said..
Kedia Commodities said London silver inventories have dropped sharply since their 2021 peak, touching a new low in 2025, reflecting tightening physical liquidity.
China’s newly announced silver export restrictions for 2026 have accelerated global stockpiling as buyers rush to secure metal ahead of reduced outbound supply. Mine production and recycling have remained flat for over a decade, while industrial demand — from solar PV, electronics, EVs, and semiconductors — continues to surge.
London vault silver holdings stood at 27,187 tonnes, up 3.5 per cent month-on-month, while gold holdings increased 0.6 per cent to 8,907 tonnes, according to LBMA data.
Global mine output has failed to respond to higher prices, plateauing at roughly 810 million ounce, levels that are effectively unchanged or lower than five years ago, said Axis Direct.
About 70-80 per cent of silver mined are done as a by-product of lead, zinc and copper and this geological reality makes supply price-inelastic. Miners cannot ramp up silver production without crashing the markets for the primary base metals, it said.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, said silver remained above $63 an ounce, hovering near all-time highs as the latest US Federal Reserve rate cut coincided with tightening physical market conditions.
Robust ETF buying and strong retail demand also supported silver, reinforcing forecasts of a market deficit next year, he said. Meanwhile, he added rising lease rates and borrowing costs for physical silver in London reflected genuine delivery stress rather than purely speculative positioning.
However, Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, said silver has seen a sharp run-up in prices. ”We can see profit booking at these levels. Prices are expected to correct to ₹1,95,000 and ₹1,90,000 soon,” she said.
Published on December 12, 2025
