FILE PHOTO: A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, U.S. June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo | Photo Credit: Eli Hartman
The agency highlighted that Russian oil exports fell by 420 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) in November, and the combination of lower shipments and weaker prices dragged Moscow’s oil revenue down to $11 billion, which is $3.6 billion less than a year ago.
IEA stated, “Russia’s total oil exports fell by roughly 400 kb/d in November to 6.9 mb/d, as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions.” The fall in exports also led to a sharp decline in Urals crude prices, which plunged by $8.2/bbl (bbl is barrel, about 159 litres) to $43.52/bbl, pushing export revenues to their lowest level since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022.
The United States has warned several countries that they could face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue purchasing Russian oil. It has imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India, citing continued purchases of Russian Oil. This was in addition to the 25 per cent tariff previously announced by US President Trump.
According to the IEA, global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending cumulative declines from September’s record of 109 mb/d (Million barrels per day) to 1.5 mb/d. The report noted that OPEC+ accounted for more than three-quarters of the overall decline, driven mainly by supply disruptions in sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela.
The group contributed to 80 per cent of the supply drop over the past two months, reflecting major unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, alongside continuing contractions in Russia and Venezuela.In contrast, Iran’s oil loadings have remained strong at about 1.9 mb/d in recent months. Among non-OPEC+ producers, the United States, Brazil and biofuels were the main contributors to the overall supply decline.
Despite recent tightness, the IEA said global oil supply is still expected to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 and by another 2.4 mb/d in 2026. On the demand side, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions. The agency has also upgraded its 2026 demand outlook to 860 kb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d from its earlier estimate.
The report pointed out that gasoil and jet/kerosene will drive half of the demand growth this year, while fuel oil continues to lose ground due to substitution by natural gas and solar in power generation. Meanwhile, refinery outages and upcoming EU restrictions on products derived from Russian crude have pushed product cracks and refining margins to three-year highs in November, the IEA added.
Published on December 12, 2025
