Benchmark indices continued their downward trajectory for the eighth consecutive session on Tuesday, closing slightly lower coinciding with the monthly derivatives expiry. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee meeting set for October 1. The BSE Sensex fell by 97.32 points or 0.12 percent, finishing at 80,267.62, while the Nifty 50 dropped 23.80 points or 0.10 percent to close at 24,611.10.
The ongoing selling pressure has resulted in the formation of a unique Japanese candlestick pattern known as the Record Session Count, a formation typically indicating potential exhaustion in bearish momentum. “On the last trading day of September, the benchmark Nifty index extended its losing streak, closing in negative territory for the eighth straight session,” stated Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities. “This continuous decline has led to the formation of a Record Session Count, often seen near the end of a downtrend, signaling that selling pressure may be approaching its limit.”
Market breadth was nearly balanced with 2,047 stocks advancing and 2,046 declining on the BSE, accompanied by 167 remaining unchanged. Out of 4,260 stocks traded, 141 reached their 52-week highs, while 156 hit their 52-week lows. Seven stocks hit the upper circuit, and six were locked in the lower circuit.
Among Nifty 50 stocks, Adani Ports was the top gainer, rising 1.66 percent to ₹1,406.10, followed closely by UltraTech Cement, which gained 1.65 percent to ₹12,240.00. JSW Steel climbed 1.61 percent to ₹1,140.30, Tata Motors grew by 1.49 percent to ₹682.55, and Hindalco increased 1.35 percent to ₹764.00.
On the downside, IndiGo was the largest laggard, declining 2.03 percent to ₹5,591.00. ITC fell 1.36 percent to ₹401.70, Bajaj Finserv dropped 1.17 percent to ₹2,001.00, Bharti Airtel decreased 1.01 percent to ₹1,883.00, and Tech Mahindra slipped 0.97 percent to ₹1,397.00.
Sectoral performance was mixed, with PSU banks leading the way, gaining 1.8 percent and extending their winning streak into a second session. The Nifty Bank index rose by 174.85 points or 0.32 percent to 54,635.85, while the Nifty Metal index advanced by one percent. Conversely, the Nifty Media index declined by over one percent after the U.S. imposed a 100 percent tariff on foreign films. The Nifty Financial Services index rose slightly by 15.10 points or 0.06 percent to 26,022.10, while the Nifty Midcap 100 ended flat, down 3.85 points or 0.01 percent at 56,529.30. The Nifty Next 50 increased by 10.05 points or 0.01 percent to 67,845.15.
“The Indian stock market closed mostly flat as investors were cautious amid mixed global cues and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy committee meeting,” remarked Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza. “The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 traded within a narrow range, reflecting indecision among buyers and sellers.”
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, pointed out that “sectoral rotation was evident, with PSU banks and metal stocks experiencing renewed buying interest, supported by improving fundamentals and favorable macroeconomic trends.”
From a technical standpoint, analysts cautioned that significant support levels are being tested. “For Nifty, the 24,500-24,450 range will serve as critical support, with an upward slope trendline positioned there. Conversely, the 24,800-24,850 range will act as a significant hurdle for the index,” said Shah of SBI Securities.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking, added that “technically, 24,600 remains an immediate support level, and a breach could lead to a decline toward the 24,400–24,500 range, while resistance is noted at 24,800–25,000.”
In the currency market, the rupee traded flat around 88.77 ahead of the RBI’s policy decision. “The rupee remained stable near 88.77 ahead of the RBI’s meeting tomorrow, which is expected to provide some cushion against the falling currency,” noted Jateen Trivedi, Vice President of Research at LKP Securities. “Equity markets have held steady over the last two sessions, as domestic institutional investors absorbed persistent foreign institutional investor selling pressure, thus limiting rupee weakness.” The projected trading range for the rupee is between 88.45–89.15.
In commodities, gold experienced volatility ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. “Gold traded erratically leading up to key U.S. data releases, with participants engaging in profit-booking, resulting in prices fluctuating between $3,865–$3,875 on Comex and ₹1,15,000–₹1,17,500 on MCX,” Trivedi said.
The India VIX, which measures market volatility, declined by 2.64 percent to 11.065, indicating relatively subdued volatility despite ongoing market uncertainties.
Looking ahead, all eyes are focused on the RBI’s monetary policy outcome scheduled for October 1, where a maintenance of current interest rates is widely anticipated. “Market expectations are concentrated around the RBI’s policy outcome, which is likely to influence the immediate direction of Indian equities. While most economists predict a status quo on interest rates, any dovish remarks from RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra could provide relief to the beleaguered stocks,” Tiwari of Bonanza mentioned. Rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, financials, realty, and automotive are expected to remain in focus, especially with the release of September auto sales figures starting on October 1.
