NEW DELHI: Zero hunger, quality education, and affordable and clean energy may seem like ideal goals, but they are part of Kerala’s reality. The state, renowned for leading in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) rankings, will cast its vote on May 4, while its acclaimed development model faces increased scrutiny.
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) government is relying on its performance to attain a third consecutive term in office. A shift toward the left would represent a significant departure from Kerala’s recent electoral history, where anti-incumbency sentiment often leads to a change in government every cycle.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan remains optimistic about the government’s welfare achievements, stating, “Our confidence is rooted in our vision and our unwavering commitment to it. We have successfully merged world-class social welfare with massive infrastructure development. Kerala consistently ranks first in Niti Aayog’s Sustainable Development Goals index and health indices. People trust us because we have proven that we deliver on our promises.”
Despite this, exit polls indicate a close contest, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) projected to secure around 72 seats, slightly ahead of the LDF at 63 in a 140-member assembly, suggesting a narrow race likely to be decided by small margins.
Why SDG Rankings Show an Incomplete Picture
A detailed analysis from the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) reveals that while Kerala boasts high SDG rankings, it has not met the halfway mark in 20 of 107 indicators across 13 out of 16 SDGs. Significant weaknesses exist in areas like gender equality (SDG 5), health (SDG 3), education (SDG 4), and decent work and economic growth (SDG 8).
In particular, gender equality measures highlight discrepancies between Kerala’s reputation and actual outcomes, evidenced by low female participation in the labor force, inadequate representation of women in managerial roles, and wage disparities.
Sivadasan Mankada, a history professor at Calicut University, argues that the welfare initiatives launched by Vijayan’s administration provide a buffer against anti-incumbency. He notes the positive reception of the LIFE mission housing program and other welfare measures like pensions for the elderly and disadvantaged.
Migration, Wage Gaps, and Demographic Shifts: Influencing Factors
As Kerala approaches election results on May 4, structural challenges may play a more decisive role than political narratives. Migration has shifted from being an economic backdrop to a significant electoral concern, with approximately 2.3 to 2.5 million Keralites working abroad and another 1 to 1.5 million employed in other Indian states.
These trends persist despite high literacy and social development levels, driven primarily by persistent wage disparities. Daily laborers can earn over ₹1,000, while educated youth typically start with salaries ranging from ₹12,000 to ₹15,000 monthly.
Benoy Peter, Executive Director at the Centre for Migration and Inclusive Development, remarked, “A laborer earns over ₹1,000 a day, while educated workers earn less in entry-level jobs, prompting many to educate abroad for quicker and better returns.” This wage mismatch results in a scenario where manual labor outstrips white-collar entry-level jobs, compelling students to look overseas.
Many voters express a desire for the LDF to continue in power, perceiving that a UDF shift would not remedy the current situation, with sentiments echoing that moving abroad is often a choice rather than a necessity.
Kerala’s labor market also increasingly relies on migrant workers, notably in sectors like construction and manufacturing, which raises questions regarding the state’s economic robustness and sustainability.
Demographic changes further complicate the issue, as many homes in central and southern Kerala are either unoccupied or inhabited by elderly family members, a manifestation of the social costs associated with migration. The trend is especially pronounced among those relocating to Europe, the U.S., and Australia, indicating a shift toward permanent settlement.
Social factors also contribute, with exposure to global lifestyles heightening the divide between local opportunities and aspirations, which could influence voting patterns as Kerala anticipates its verdict.
UDF’s Welfare Strategy
The UDF has structured its manifesto to directly counter the LDF’s long-standing social security framework. By designating pensions as legal entitlements rather than handouts, the UDF aims to reframe the welfare dialogue and challenge the LDF’s incumbency advantage.
Central to this initiative are the “Indira Guarantees” unveiled by Rahul Gandhi, which broaden welfare measures significantly. Proposals include free bus travel for women, monthly stipends for college students, ₹3,000 social pensions, and extended health insurance coverage, indicating an effort to surpass the LDF’s reach.
Additionally, the UDF promotes structural reforms alongside welfare initiatives, suggesting a permanent support system rather than temporary schemes. Projects such as a dedicated senior citizen department and a Job Watch Tower for employment tracking aim to deliver enhanced governance.
These efforts address economic growth concerns, countering criticism of the LDF regarding industrial growth with new initiatives like Mission Samudra and the creation of 10,000 enterprises.
BJP’s Strategic Welfare Approach
Emboldened by recent electoral successes, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is refining its strategy for Kerala with a strong welfare pitch aimed at broadening its voter base. Following its first parliamentary seat victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and its rise in Thiruvananthapuram, the party seeks to establish itself as a credible third option against both the LDF and UDF.
The BJP’s manifesto, introduced under Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s leadership, emphasizes welfare alongside development goals. Proposed measures include ₹3,000 monthly pensions for vulnerable populations, free water supply, and two annual free LPG cylinders, aimed at competing directly with both rival parties.
Additionally, the “Bhakshya Arogya Suraksha” card, which would offer ₹2,500 monthly for essential expenses, illustrates the BJP’s intention to connect with economically weaker segments.
This dual approach blends welfare with infrastructure and growth commitments—suggesting a strategic shift in the BJP’s tactics toward embedding itself in Kerala’s competitive welfare politics.
Anti-Incumbency Concerns for the LDF
Anti-incumbency remains a tangible threat in Kerala, demonstrated by historical electoral trends. The LDF, led by Vijayan, faces a precarious situation with past elections reflecting a tendency for voters to rotate power. The LDF’s performance has shown significant variances, such as in 2001, where it dropped to 41 seats from 100, only to rebound in later elections.
Currently, after being in power since 2016 and holding 94 seats in 2021, the LDF is attempting to achieve something uncommon: a third consecutive term. Historical patterns suggest that even strong mandates have not shielded incumbents from waning support over time, making the upcoming 2026 verdict particularly unpredictable.
