A team of leading academic and think tank researchers has undertaken an effort to forecast the economic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) from now until 2030. They conducted a survey involving numerous economists, AI specialists, and experts known as “superforecasters” to explore various scenarios, including one where AI achieves the capability to author a “Pulitzer-caliber” book and manage its own publishing rights negotiations.
The survey indicated that a majority of experts anticipate that higher-ranking positions—such as CEOs, administrative managers, senior officials, and legislators—will continue to experience growth, even in an environment characterized by rapid advancements in AI. However, the outlook for professionals in many other white-collar roles remains uncertain.
Researchers generally concur that AI is influencing the economy in complex ways, though quantifying its exact effects proves challenging. To address this, WIRED has devised a quiz that, while unscientific, is based on factors identified by researchers that could indicate the extent to which individuals might be impacted by AI.
For those whose jobs may be affected by AI in ways not accounted for by the quiz, readers are encouraged to contact Maddy securely via Signal at mvarner.01 or engage in the comments section below. Additionally, submissions for letters to the editor can be sent to [email protected].
