India’s gold demand is expected to remain strong in 2025, ranging between 700-800 tonnes, despite a 31% increase in value in 2024, according to Sachin Jain, Regional CEO—India, World Gold Council.
Following a solid performance in 2024, with total gold demand in India reaching 802.8 tonnes, a 5% increase from 761 tonnes in 2023, the outlook for 2025 looks promising.
In 2024, the total gold demand value in India was ₹5,15,390 crore, up by 31% compared to ₹3,92,000 crore in 2023. The average quarterly gold price in October-December 2024 was ₹72,268.3 per 10 grams, compared to ₹52,761.3 in the same quarter the previous year (excluding import duty and GST).
Jain believes that 2025 will be a more stable year for the gold business. While investment demand in gold as an asset class is expected to rise, jewellery demand may see some moderation in India.
With the general elections over and the recent budget providing additional disposable income, the year ahead looks positive, especially at the current price levels. Jain mentioned that a 1% increase in disposable income in India historically correlates to a 1% increase in gold demand.
He also highlighted the increased digitization of the Indian economy, leading to higher demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025. The discontinuation of issuing sovereign gold bonds is expected to further boost demand for gold ETFs.
Jain noted that the trend of increased gold purchases by central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), is strategic and is expected to continue in 2025. RBI’s gold purchases increased to 73 tonnes in 2024 from just 16 tonnes in 2023.
In the December quarter, gold demand in India was flat at 266 tonnes due to a sharp price increase and weak demand from the jewellery sector. However, investment demand saw a 14% increase to 76 tonnes. Imports were down 1%, while gold recycling was up 16%.
Overall, the outlook for India’s gold demand in 2025 looks positive, with a strong focus on investment demand and the potential for growth in gold ETFs and digital gold.
