India is currently resisting calls from Bangladesh to resume the issuance of medical visas at normal levels, attributing this to staffing shortages amid deteriorating bilateral relations, according to six sources. This situation is creating an opportunity for China to enhance its medical offerings and strengthen people-to-people connections in the region.
In 2023, a significant portion of the medical visas granted by India to Bangladeshis were for those seeking affordable healthcare and for Bengali-speaking medical professionals. This influx had previously helped foster closer ties between India and Bangladesh, countering China’s influence in the region. However, insiders indicate that since August, India has been granting fewer than 1,000 medical visas per day, a stark decrease from the usual 5,000 to 7,000. This reduction is attributed to strained relations following the establishment of a new interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, who replaced India’s long-time ally, Sheikh Hasina.
Following her ousting amid violent protests in August, Hasina sought refuge in New Delhi, and India remains non-committal regarding her repatriation for legal proceedings. In total, India issued over 2 million visas to Bangladeshis in 2023, mainly for medical reasons. However, the recent decline in visa grants has opened the door for China, which has been quick to capitalize on this gap. For instance, a group of Bangladeshis traveled to Yunnan province this month to investigate potential opportunities in the medical tourism sector, as stated by the Chinese ambassador, Yao Wen. Furthermore, Chinese companies have injected over $230 million into Bangladesh since Yunus’s government assumed power, the highest investment from any country during this time.
Yunus is scheduled to visit China this month to engage with President Xi Jinping. As relations between India and China slowly heal following border clashes in 2020, China is also contemplating the establishment of a friendship hospital in Dhaka and has relaxed entry requirements for Bangladeshis seeking medical care there. A spokesperson from China’s foreign ministry remarked that their cooperation with Bangladesh is not aimed at any third party and remains unaffected by external factors.
India’s increasingly slow visa processing is alienating not only the Bangladeshi government but also its populace, which could lead to a long-term estrangement from India, especially as a swift return to power by Hasina’s party seems unlikely. Officials in New Delhi have cited staff shortages at their embassy in Dhaka as a reason for the visa delays, while also expressing concerns for the safety of their personnel. Many Indian diplomats and their families were evacuated in August after public sentiment in Bangladesh turned against India for hosting Hasina, leading to protests in Dhaka that targeted an Indian cultural center. Indian government sources assured that they aim to facilitate access to medical treatment for Bangladeshis, indicating a plan to increase staff at their missions in Bangladesh once stability returns.
Some officials also raised concerns about potential misuse of medical visas by individuals attempting to escape adverse conditions in Bangladesh. These visa challenges occur amidst a backdrop of more than $7 billion in credit lines extended by India to Bangladesh for various developmental projects, including infrastructure for rail links, Indian economic zones, and defense procurement.
While India grapples with these issues, China’s influence in Bangladesh appears to be growing. Reports suggest that India has not engaged with any political leaders in Bangladesh formally, while a recent delegation from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party visited China at Beijing’s invitation. Yunus recently expressed readiness to further open Bangladesh’s market to China, coinciding with the announcement that leading solar energy firm Longi Green Energy plans to establish a presence and invest in manufacturing in Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, the first anticipated meeting between Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected until next month at a conference in Thailand. Analysts note that China’s regional influence is on the rise, signaling a strategic shift in South Asia that challenges the historical dominance India has enjoyed.
