Gold prices surged back above $4,000 per ounce this week as escalating trade tensions between the US and China unsettled equity markets, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets. This increase occurred despite a reduction in geopolitical tensions in West Asia, with market participants now focusing on President Trump’s recent announcement of 100 percent retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods effective November 1.
“Gold prices climbed back above $4,000 an ounce due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China, which caused fluctuations in US markets and led to declines in riskier assets, overshadowing the easing geopolitical concerns in West Asia,” stated Aksha Kamboj, Vice-President of the India Bullion and Jewellers’ Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures.
The precious metal is on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by various factors, including the ongoing US government shutdown and issues concerning the Federal Reserve’s independence. Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, noted, “Gold is still on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain. In the short term, a stronger US dollar and easing geopolitical risks may continue to exert pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, any pullback is likely to draw buyers at lower levels.”
Record Inflows into Gold ETFs
Indian investors have demonstrated unprecedented interest in gold, with September data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) revealing record inflows. Gold ETFs recorded their highest-ever monthly inflow of nearly $900 million, pushing total assets under management (AUM) past the $10-billion mark. In rupee terms, gold ETFs added approximately ₹8,500 crore, elevating total AUM beyond ₹90,000 crore.
“Gold ETFs experienced their largest-ever monthly inflow of nearly $900 million, indicating that investors are prioritizing safety amidst market uncertainty and global volatility,” commented Nikunj Saraf, CEO of Choice Wealth.
The surge in investments in precious metals reflects a broader trend of diversification among Indian investors. Silver ETFs also captured significant attention, while multi-asset allocation funds witnessed nearly ₹5,000 crore in inflows, primarily spurred by gold and silver investments. Naval Kagalwala, COO & Head of Products at Shriram Wealth Ltd., added, “Gold and other ETFs (including Silver) have seen the highest net inflows (approximately ₹16,000 crore) across all mutual fund categories, likely influenced by the significant rally in gold and silver prices year-to-date, indicating a fear of missing out among retail investors.”
Market analysts attribute the sustained demand to multiple global macroeconomic factors. Kartik Jain, MD & CEO of Shriram AMC, noted, “Anticipated interest rate cuts, persistent inflation, decelerating global growth, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Increased investments by central banks in gold and silver, along with record inflows into bullion ETFs, further support this demand.”
Festive Demand
Looking ahead, domestic demand may receive a boost from the approaching Diwali festival. Kamboj highlighted, “The upcoming Diwali festival is likely to elevate gold demand as festive buyers return to the market.”
From a technical viewpoint, gold shows support at $3,940-$3,910 and resistance at $4,020-$4,045, according to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd. In Indian rupee terms, gold support levels are set at ₹1,19,870-₹1,19,280, while resistance levels are at ₹1,21,850-₹1,22,400.
Published on October 11, 2025.
