India is experiencing climate change like many other nations; however, it is warming at a comparatively slower rate. According to a recent study featured in a compilation by Harvard University’s Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability, the monthly maximum temperature has increased, on average, by approximately 0.28 degrees Celsius per decade since 1980. The average temperature change from 2015 to 2024 has reached 0.88 degrees Celsius relative to the 1980–1990 period, with 2025 projected as the warmest year on record.
Notably, India’s average temperature increase is less than the global average of around 1.4 degrees Celsius during the same timeframe. This disparity is significant, as it may not persist in the future due to several influencing factors.
Temperature increases are not uniform across different regions or time periods, varying by month and time of day. For example, winter daytime temperatures in northern India are warming at a slower rate than the national average, with certain areas even experiencing a pronounced cooling trend.
While this phenomenon might be dismissed as natural climate variability, the “widespread and significant winter daytime cooling” noted in large areas of northern India since 1980 cannot be fully accounted for by such short-term fluctuations.
The study identifies “aerosol forcing” and irrigation as underlying contributors to this cooling trend. Aerosols—tiny particles released through activities such as burning crop residue, industrial emissions, traffic, and cooking—are typically viewed as harmful. However, they can have a beneficial effect by reflecting sunlight back into space or absorbing energy.
During the night, the Earth releases the heat gathered during the day via longwave radiation. Aerosols can impede the escape of this heat, redirecting it to the Earth’s surface. Furthermore, northern India is heavily irrigated; the energy from the sun is utilized by plants and soil to convert irrigation water into vapor, which prevents air from heating up, resulting in cooling effects. This mirrors the natural cooling seen historically in the American Midwest, an area with extensive irrigation.
However, the persistence of this trend is questionable. Both aerosol concentrations and irrigation practices may change, which could lead to increased warming across northern India.
The paper notes, “Aerosol loading may decline under a clean air policy. India’s National Clean Air Programme and accompanying state-level initiatives aim to reduce ambient particulate matter.” Although diminishing aerosols will enhance public health, it may also eliminate the masking effect on greenhouse warming, potentially leading to a rise in winter daytime temperatures in northern India. Conversely, cleaner air might result in cooler nights due to the ability of heat to dissipate more freely into space, thereby increasing the temperature range.
Irrigation is closely tied to groundwater availability, particularly in the Indo-Gangetic plain, which is situated above one of the fastest-depleting groundwater systems globally. Future irrigation practices may shift as a consequence of groundwater depletion, enhanced efficiency, or crop diversification. As transpiration—the moisture loss from plants—and soil evaporation decrease, so too will the related cooling effects, which may accelerate warming in the northern plains beyond the changes observed since 1980.
Published on April 27, 2026.
