The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on the verge of securing a third consecutive term in Assam, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma poised for re-election on May 4. The BJP first took power in the state in 2016, ending the Congress party’s 15-year dominance, which had been led by former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Sarbananda Sonowal initially succeeded Gogoi, and after re-election in 2021, Sarma was appointed chief minister while Sonowal was offered a position in the Union cabinet.
Sarma, a former Congress member who joined the BJP in 2015, has held various important positions including finance and health ministries under Sonowal’s government. He is contesting from his stronghold in Jalukbari, located in the Kamrup Metropolitan district, which he has represented since 2001. This election marks his bid for a sixth consecutive term.
To challenge the NDA’s potential return to power and to leverage a decade of anti-incumbency sentiment, opposition parties united under the leadership of Congress’s state unit head Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. His coalition includes Akhil Gogoi, leader of the Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the Assam Jatiya Parishad.
Sarma is banking on his government’s welfare initiatives, particularly the Orunodoi scheme, which benefits over 2.6 million women with monthly financial assistance, nurturing a loyal voter base referred to by the party as “labharthi” voters.
While the issues of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) remain critical, they have shifted from mass protests to competing political narratives. The BJP frames its position as one of safeguarding indigenous identity and land, which has been emphasized through contentious eviction drives against alleged “illegal Bangladeshis.”
The BJP has established a strong political presence in the northeast, but the outcome of the election in Assam will determine if they maintain this stronghold. Exit polls suggest a significant victory for the NDA; however, their accuracy can vary. The election results will be disclosed on Monday.
