Tin prices will likely rule higher in 2026, supported by supply woes amid increasing demand from the semiconductor industry, analysts have said.
“While tin demand is cooling towards the end of the year, market speculation surrounding supply continues to dominate the story,” said Freddie Mitchell, market analyst at the International Tin Association (ITA).
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said it expects tin prices to remain supported by continued supply issues in the face of steady demand from the semiconductor industry, keeping markets on edge..
Price forecast
“We have revised our annual average tin price forecast for 2026 to $35,000/tonne from $32,000/tonne previously,” it said.
Crux Investor’s Ryan Charles said tightening ore supply in China’s Yunnan province is supporting the near-term price resilience.
“Weakness in traditional electronics demand is being offset by structural growth in AI computing, semiconductor build-outs, and photovoltaic installations, setting the stage for a multi-year demand runway,” said Charles.
Currently, the three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange is ruling at $38,125 a tonne. The metal, also used in food cans, plumbing and alloy manufacturing, has gained over 30 per cent this year.
Vulnerable supply
ITA’s Mitchell said: “Weaker-than-expected Indonesian exports in October spurred stronger bullish sentiment, although we caution that exports are set to recover sharply in November with the month-to-date total already exceeding October’s whole-month total.”
BMI said, quoting ITA, said shipments from Myanmar’s Wa state will resume in the coming months, as several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits. However, there was no substantial update on this as of November 24.
The Myanmar junta suspended tin mining in Wa province in August 2023. It was reported to have permitted mining this year, but it may resume now.
Crux Investor said the global supply of tin remains vulnerable to disruptions from Myanmar’s political instability and Indonesia’s tightening export controls.
‘Wait-and-watch’
Mitchell said rumours of accelerated progress in Wa “appear to be rumours only”, and the resumption remains sluggish. “The impact of the temporary closure of Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port — a major export route for African tin concentrates — remains to be seen,” he said..
“We have adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach, as news of a resumption of tin mining at the Wa state has circulated markets for months without actually materialising,” said BMI.
For instance, in March 2025, after nearly two years of being halted, authorities declared that tin mining in the Wa state could resume, with new licences a requirement for miners wishing to undertake projects in the area. Yet, in April 2025, further talks were postponed as a result of an earthquake in the region.
Historically, Myanmar is the world’s third-largest tin producer. According to United States Geological Survey data, it is estimated to have the third largest reserves in the world, at 700 kt or 15 per cent of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800 kt and 720 kt, respectively).
Traders said the high prices are now affecting demand, but the situation reflected supply woes.
Indonesia export recovery
BMI said due to a persistent shortage of tin concentrates, operating rates at China-based smelters, especially in Yunnan and Jiangxi, were roughly half of full capacity in July 2025, with just a slight improvement to over 60 per cent in November 2025.
Indonesian tin exports have started to recover since February 2025, with refined tin exports from January to October 2025 totalling 37,551 tonnes. They were driven by renewed mining permits in July-August and export approvals, which led to a significant rise in exports in Q3, said BMI.
“That said, exports declined sharply in October 2025 compared to October 2024 due to an intensified government clampdown on illegal mining,” said the research agency.
BMI said economic activity globally has shown resilience despite being subdued as compared with periods of high growth, leading to better demand.
Global tin stocks have started to rise slightly, but remain low, and this exposes the tin market to bouts of volatility, it said.
Published on November 28, 2025
