OPEC+ is set to increase oil production starting in November, as discussions among member countries are ongoing. Sources familiar with the negotiations indicate that Saudi Arabia is advocating for a larger increase to reclaim market share, while Russia has suggested a more conservative rise.
The grouping, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers like Russia, has already raised its oil output targets by over 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, representing approximately 2.5% of global demand. This policy shift follows years of production cuts aimed at stabilizing the market amidst competition from U.S. shale producers.
Disagreements have arisen between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two leading producers within OPEC+. Russia prefers an increase of 137,000 bpd from November—consistent with October’s output—to avoid exerting pressure on oil prices, especially as it grapples with sanctions due to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Conversely, Saudi Arabia is seeking a more substantial increase—potentially doubling to quadrupling that figure, suggesting increases of 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd, or even 548,000 bpd—as it can rapidly scale up production and aims to expand its market presence.
Currently, no final decision has been reached, with one source anticipating a modest rise of 137,000 bpd and another foreseeing a more likely increase of 274,000 bpd. OPEC+ countries are scheduled for an online meeting at 1100 GMT on Sunday.
Previous production cuts peaked in March, totaling 5.85 million bpd, comprising voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd from eight members, and an additional 2 million bpd across the entire group. The eight OPEC+ member countries plan to fully reverse the 2.2 million bpd cuts by the end of September, having begun to ease the second round of cuts of 1.65 million bpd with the recent increase of 137,000 bpd.
Published on October 5, 2025.
