Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure in 2025 due to a combination of strong supply outlook and weaker steel demand. Both Australia and Brazil, the world’s largest iron ore producers, are projected to increase their export volumes, leading to an oversupply in the market. Additionally, disappointing economic data from China, the largest consumer of iron ore, has dampened the demand outlook for the commodity.
Major Australian and Brazilian miners are ramping up production, and new supply from emerging producers in Africa is also expected to contribute to the global supply. This abundance of supply is likely to keep iron ore prices low in 2025.
Chinese demand will continue to play a crucial role in determining the price of iron ore. The country’s steel demand outlook, particularly in the property sector, will be a key factor in supporting or pressuring prices. A stronger-than-expected turnaround in the Chinese property sector could provide much-needed support to iron ore prices.
However, analysts predict that iron ore prices will trend downwards in 2025, with an average price of around $95 per tonne. The benchmark iron ore price is projected to decline further to around $80 per tonne in 2025 and $76 per tonne in 2026.
Overall, the outlook for iron ore in 2025 is bearish, with ample supplies and weak steel demand expected to keep prices under pressure. Investors and industry players will need to closely monitor developments in China, as well as global economic trends, to gauge the future trajectory of iron ore prices.
