Russian oil exports to India are expected to remain near record levels in April and May, following a new U.S. sanctions waiver. Refiners have preemptively secured much of their supply from non-sanctioned entities and vessels, according to traders and data released on Tuesday.
India, the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude after China, imported a record 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in March, nearly double the volume from February, with Russian oil constituting about 50 percent of its total imports.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler indicated that Russian crude shipments to Indian ports are projected to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20 to 27, up from 1.67 million bpd the previous week. The mid-April drop in supply was likely due to export disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports at the end of March, according to two sources.
However, sources involved in the trade expect Russian supplies to average over 2 million bpd for the entire month, potentially increasing or maintaining that level in May.
In a related development, Washington granted a 30-day waiver in mid-March to countries buying sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products, aimed at stabilizing global energy markets affected by the ongoing war with Iran. This waiver was renewed last week.
Despite the sanctions intended to compel Moscow to seek a peace agreement with Kyiv, Russian oil deliveries to India have persisted through non-sanctioned entities in the supply chain, according to traders and analysts. Indian refiners had been actively acquiring Russian oil in April prior to the waiver renewal, securing much of the volume intended for May delivery by the previous week.
Indian refineries were reported to be paying premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel for Russian oil compared to the dated Brent for May cargoes, similar to prices for April imports. Furthermore, India has recently expanded the number of Russian insurers eligible to provide marine coverage for vessels docking at its ports, increasing the total from eight to eleven, as stated by its Directorate General of Shipping.
Published on April 21, 2026.
