The Indian rupee has experienced significant depreciation in recent weeks, reaching a new low of 95.43 against the dollar on Tuesday, before closing at 95.29.
The recent surge in crude oil prices is significantly impacting the rupee. Over the past fortnight, Brent crude oil prices have risen approximately 18%, climbing from around $96 per barrel to $113 per barrel.
From a technical analysis perspective, the bullish trend in oil prices is likely to continue, with expectations for a trading range between $105 and $116 in the near term. A strong support level exists around $100. Should oil prices remain above this threshold, there is potential for an increase to $125-$130 in the coming weeks. This escalation in oil prices is anticipated to further exert pressure on the rupee, suggesting that continued increases in oil could lead to further declines in the domestic currency.
In the context of the rupee’s performance, it is critical for oil prices to dip below $100 and maintain that level to provide relief. Such a scenario may hinge on the resolution of the US-Iran conflict, a development that appears unlikely at present.
Looking ahead, the outlook for the rupee remains bleak. Immediate resistance is identified at 95, with a subsequent barrier at 94.80. In the coming weeks, the rupee could further decline to levels around 95.90 or even 96.15. The key resistance level of 94.50 must be breached for any chance of recovery, which could allow the currency to stabilize at 94 and 93.50. For this recovery to take place, either a decline in oil prices below $100 must occur or intervention from the central bank will be necessary.
Published on May 5, 2026.
