However, analysts, refiners and traders indicate that November 2025 was perhaps the last month when Russia accounted for 35 per cent or more of India’s cumulative imports of crude oil.
A notable development during last month was India importing larger quantities of crude oil from the US and Africa with both regions witnessing their share rising to record levels.
However, analysts, refiners and traders indicate that November 2025 was perhaps the last month when Russia accounted for 35 per cent or more of India’s cumulative imports of crude oil.
The US sanctions, which kicked in on November 21, will drag down Russian cargoes by roughly one-third during December this year. The sanctions by the European Union, which will come into effect in January 2026, also threatens to upend supplies from Moscow.
Global real time data and analytics provider Kpler said that “as expected”, Russian arrivals remained strong so far this month, averaging around 1.8 mb/d (provisionally) and accounting for more than 35 per cent of India’s total crude import mix.
Before November 21, imports were closer to 1.9–2 mb/d as buyers moved cargoes ahead of the deadline, after which volumes slowed. It looks like refiners stocked up on crude ahead of the sanctions, planning to process it once the rules were in force, it added.
Source diversification
India imported around 1.83 mb/d of crude oil from Russia during November 2025, growing by 13 per cent M-o-M and more than 4 per cent Y-o-Y. Russia accounted for around 36.30 per cent of India’s cumulative crude oil imports (around 5.05 mb/d).
Urals grade accounting for more than 77 per cent of the total Russian cargoes. India imported 1.41 mb/d of Urals, higher by 13.5 per cent M-o-M. The cargoes, however, fell by 4.5 per cent Y-o-Y.
Middle East remained India’s largest crude oil supplier, cornering 42.43 per cent share of the imports. Cumulatively, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, The UAE, Kuwait and Oman shipped 2.14 mb/d to India.
The outlier regions were North America and Africa. India imported roughly 500,000 b/d crude oil from Africa (Nigeria, Angola, Congo, Libya, Ghana and Gabon) accounting for 9.90 per cent of India’s total imports.
The US accounted for 8.75 per cent of India’s total crude oil imports. Washington shipped 442,000 b/d to India during November 2025, declining by over 22 per cent M-o-M from the record cargoes in September (568,000 b/d). However, shipments rose by 100 per cent on an annual basis.
Going ahead
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline “Looking ahead, we’ve started to see a clear dip in Russia’s exports to India since the OFAC sanctions announced on October 23. Based on current loadings and voyage activity, we expect December (2025) arrivals to be in the range of 1 mb/d. This aligns with our earlier view that, in the short term, Russian flows could ease toward around 800,000 b/d before stabilising.”
While India’s oil imports from Russia are likely to decrease after November 21st, the decline is most likely to be temporary, allowing the supply chain to reorganise itself. Unless more expansive secondary sanctions are introduced, he emphasised.
To compensate for softer near-term Russian arrivals, Indian refiners are expected to increase intake from a broader mix of suppliers, including Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait), Brazil and broader Latin America (Argentina, Colombia and Guyana), West Africa and North America (the US and Canada).
Published on December 2, 2025
