Flows of Russian oil to major Indian refiners — a boon for both countries’ economies over the past three years — are expected to fall to near zero after the US imposed sanctions on crude giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.
Senior executives at the processors said the latest restrictions announced by Washington overnight, blacklisting Russia’s largest producers, would make it all but impossible for flows to continue. They asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
So far this year, India has taken just over 36 per cent of its imports from Russia, according to analytics firm Kpler, a major irritant for President Donald Trump and hurdle in trade negotiations after punitive tariffs came into effect in August.
Historically, India has not been a significant importer of Russian crude, depending more heavily on the Middle East. That changed in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations that aimed to limit the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping supplies flowing globally. India eschews US-sanctioned crude from Iran and Venezuela, but Russian cargoes were both permitted and comparatively inexpensive, so purchases leapt higher.
The latest move from the Trump administration — which had previously held off major sanctions even as officials publicly criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi — has directly targeted oil flows from Moscow’s heavyweights and effectively ends that trade, just as Indian refining executives return to work after the Diwali holiday.
A sole exception could be Rosneft-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy. It has been operating exclusively on Russian crude after EU sanctions that came into effect in July.
In the short term, the latest sanctions will mean that orders due to be placed over the coming week — for crude that will load in November and deliver in December — will now be overwhelmingly from other destinations. Spot negotiations for Urals cargoes have already been muted since mid-October, when Trump said Modi had vowed to halt purchases of Russian crude, leaving buyers reluctant to take major positions.
“With this sanctions move, the Indian refiners may have to pull back way faster,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based market analysis firm Vanda Insights. “It’ll probably be relatively easier for India, which was not buying any Russian crude until three years ago, compared to China.”
India is the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude, but the sanctions have also sent shockwaves deep into the heart of China’s oil industry.
“This is definitely one of the more meaningful measures the US has taken, but I think it will be blunted by the widespread use of illicit financial networks,” said Rachel Ziemba, analyst at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “So it really comes down to whether China and India are afraid of further escalation in secondary sanctions.”
State refiners Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. did not immediately respond to Bloomberg queries. They typically buy crude on the spot market.
Reliance Industries Ltd., which has a long-term contract with Rosneft, also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Representatives of Nayara Energy, which accounted for 16 per cent of India’s oil imports from Russia this year, did not immediately reply to an email seeking comment.
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Published on October 23, 2025
