Gold prices in India are expected to maintain an upside bias for the rest of 2025, driven by a projected uptrend in global gold prices and a weakening Indian rupee, according to a sectoral update by ICICI Bank Global Markets. The report projects an equilibrium range of USD/Rs at 87.00-89.00 for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) and the first half of 2026.
The report further added that the domestic gold prices are expected to trade between ₹1,20,000 and ₹1,35,000 per 10 grams through the remainder of 2025, and could rise further to ₹1,30,000-₹1,45,000 in the first half of 2026. However, risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly if the rupee weakens more than anticipated or global gold prices exceed current forecasts, the report added.
In India, the spot rate is currently around ₹1.31 lakh per 10 grams on MCX.
Earlier in an interview with ANI, Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) Gold prices are expected to hit the record level of ₹1.50 lakh per 10-gram level in coming months as it is showing unprecedented momentum in the global and domestic markets bolstered by the central bank purchases and strong public demand, particularly in China and Japan.
The report added that the structural investment-related demand for the yellow metal is visible in ETF flows in gold that remained firm. The SPDR ETF flows in gold increased from 975 tonnes as of 13th September 2025 to 1015 tonnes as of 13th October 2025.On the other hand, speculative net long positions decreased by roughly 8k in the last month.
Domestic gold prices have risen by 16 per cent over the last month, driven by the rise in global prices and depreciation in the INR against the USD over the period. At the same time, gold imports picked up from $5.44billion in August to $9.6billion in September, showing that demand in the local markets remains firm.
“With the onset of the festive season, gold demand in India is expected to pick up, which should keep the imports high. Although traditionally, Indian households prefer physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, and bars, the ongoing rally has seen urban investors increasingly favour ETFs. The World Gold Council reported that India’s physically backed gold ETFs recorded the biggest-ever monthly inflow in September,” the report said.
The report further highlighted that the surge came as investors turned to gold amid weak stock market returns and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. “The ETF demand-related demand for gold is expected to remain fairly solid,” it added.
Published on October 19, 2025
