The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), Kerala’s primary Opposition bloc, secured victory in the crucial local body elections, the results of which were announced on Saturday. The results assume significance as they come ahead of next year’s Kerala Assembly elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also scripted its first win in a municipal corporation (Thiruvananthapuram) in the state in what Prime Minister Narendra Modi described as a watershed moment.’
Many rural and urban local bodies that were long considered strongholds of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and had withstood repeated electoral challenges have been taken over by the UDF this time.
The Results
The Congress-led UDF emerged as the biggest winner in the heart of the battle, leading in 505 of the 941 Grama Panchayats, 79 of 142 Block Panchayats, seven of 14 District Panchayats, 54 of 87 Municipalities and four of six Corporations, according to the State Election Commission, Kerala.
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) suffered a setback, with a majority in only 340 Grama Panchayats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led with 26, while AAP won three, according to the State Election Commission.
In the 101-member Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 50 wards, falling just one short of an absolute majority, while the LDF was pushed back to 29 and the UDF to 19, with two independents.
The oath-taking of elected panchayat members and municipal councillors will be held on 21 December.
The results are a setback for the LDF, which has been in power in the state since 2016 and ruled a majority of local bodies for a decade. The LDF setback against the UDF in Kerala reflects a mix of local anti-incumbency, organisational weaknesses and shifting voter priorities, especially in urban and semi-urban areas.
Here are 5 reasons for the defeat:
1-Anti-incumbency at the local level
After years in power, voter fatigue began to set in against the LDF-run local bodies. The anti-incumbency at the grassroots level played a decisive role. Many LDF-led local bodies had been in control of the bloc for multiple terms, leading to voter fatigue.
The Pinari Vijayan-led LDF government appears to be at the receiving end of anti-incumbency. The CPI (M) recently launched a social media campaign for a third term in the state assembly, which has seemingly not gone down well with voters, at least in the local body polls.
Everyday issues, such as roads, waste management, and civic services, hurt incumbents more than big policy decisions, as has been the trend in local body polls. The ruling dispensation in Kerala faced backlash over rising prices.
“The number one reason for the LDF defeat is that the people hate the current government. In the past, people have often given mandates opposing a government. But this time, the verdict underlines that the people hate the administration. The CPM’s communal tendencies led to this result,” Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan said after the results.
2- Strong UDF mobilisation
The UDF ran a better booth-level campaign, stitched together caste- and community-based support, and capitalised on dissatisfaction among traditional LDF voters, according to political observers.
The Left largely fought the campaign on its development and welfare agenda, highlighting what it described as its achievements over the past decade in power.
It, for example, highlighted the monthly pensions of ₹2,000 for 49 lakh beneficiaries with the introduction of a monthly assistance of ₹1,000 for women from below-poverty-line (BPL) families. However, the welfare schemes launched during the COVID-19 pandemic may have already helped the LDF win the 2020 local body and the 2021 Assembly elections. They, however, clearly failed to resonate with voters this time.
The UDF, on the other hand, ran a sharper, better-coordinated campaign focusing on hyper-local issues. The Congress-led mobilised minority and caste groups more effectively, and benefited from better booth-level coordination. It successfully managed to consolidate anti-Left sentiment without significant vote leakage.
Prof Sajid Ibrahim K M of the University of Kerala’s Department of Political Science told Onmanorama that the LDF’s drubbing was a ‘course correction.’
“The LDF has been soaring for the past 10 years. Some course correction was needed to restore its connection with the people,” he said. “Its campaign, at least in Thiruvananthapuram, lacked vigour,” he said.
“The LDF has been soaring for the past 10 years. Some course correction was needed to restore its connection with the people,” he said. “Its campaign, at least in Thiruvananthapuram, lacked vigour,” he said adding, the UDF was the natural beneficiary of the anti-incumbency votes.
3- The Muslim and Christian Voters
The CPI(M) has faced a body blow in Muslim-dominated areas. According to a report in the Indian Express, it was mainly due to the impression that the Left bloc had pulled back in its fight against the Hindutva agenda. In particular, controversies, including the one over the PM-SHRI (Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising India), a Central programme that the Kerala government joined after years of pushing against it, raised suspicions about the CPI(M)’s stand against the saffron party
Vijayan and the CPI(M)’s silence after prominent Hindu leader Vellappally Natesan, general secretary of the social organisation Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, targeted Muslims in Malappuram did perhaps not go well with Muslim voters.
The Christian vote in central Kerala, which has been divided among the Congress, CPI(M), and BJP in recent elections, appeared to rally behind the Congress in these local body elections.
In the 2020 local body and 2021 Assembly elections, the UDF lost central Kerala after the regional, Christian-oriented party, Kerala Congress (M), joined the LDF. This time, despite the Congress having no prominent central Kerala Christian faces, the party managed to win back the community. The BJP, with 15 per cent of its candidates coming from the community, also saw its Christian outreach fail to pay dividends.
4- Sabarimala gold scandal
The alleged gold theft from the Sabarimala temple also seemed to have worked against the Left, more so in central and southern Kerala, where the CPI(M) has had a strong Hindu vote base.
Both the Congress and the BJP aggressively highlighted the scandal — which led to the arrest of two Left leaders — during the local body election campaign.
The CPI(M), meanwhile, tried to shore up its Hindu vote base by accusing the Congress of enjoying the backing of the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami, an issue Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan repeatedly raised at rallies and press briefings. The Congress hit back by claiming that the CPI(M) itself had relied on Jamaat-e-Islami’s support for decades, until 2019.
5 – The Urban Voter Trends
One of the most notable features of the Kerala local bodies election results is the extent of the LDF’s defeat in key urban centres. In cities and semi-urban areas, it is said, younger voters and the middle class have moved away from the LDF, responding to UDF promises on job creation, governance reform, and transparency.
The UDF wrested control of the Kollam, Thrissur, and Kochi municipal corporations from the Left, while retaining control of Kannur. Kollam and Thrissur, in particular, had been governed by the Left for 25 years and a decade, respectively.
In the Kozhikode Corporation, the contest was close, although the LDF managed to secure the seat in the end.
The number one reason for the LDF defeat is that the people hate the current government.
The biggest jolt for the Left came from Thiruvananthapuram, where the BJP-led NDA surged ahead in the corporation, which had been held by the CPI(M) for 45 years.
