The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Friday that most global models predict the emergence of El Niño during India’s monsoon season, lasting until at least January 2026. This weather phenomenon is expected to contribute to reduced rainfall during both the kharif and rabi agricultural seasons in India. The IMD indicated that the monsoon is anticipated to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 14 and May 16.
Currently, conditions over the equatorial Pacific are neutral regarding the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but these are expected to transition towards El Niño, potentially persisting until January 2026. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, noted that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—which typically supports monsoon rainfall—may be overshadowed by the effects of El Niño, even if IOD becomes near-positive.
Presently, neutral IOD conditions exist in the Indian Ocean, but recent climate models suggest that positive IOD conditions may develop towards the end of the monsoon season. The kharif sowing season in India typically begins with the onset of monsoon around June 1, while the rabi (winter) cropping season commences in October.
Lower Rainfall Predicted
The IMD has predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall for the upcoming season, estimating it will reach only 92 percent of the long-period average of 87 cm in 2026. In contrast, last year, the southwest monsoon made its way to the Kerala coast on May 24, the earliest since 2009, deviating from the expected June 1 date. The onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands also arrived earlier, on May 13, compared to the normal date of May 20.
During a media briefing on IMD’s monthly weather forecast for May, Mohapatra mentioned that parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat, and Maharashtra may experience above-normal heatwave days. He confirmed that average rainfall for the country as a whole during May is likely to be above normal.
“During May, night temperatures across many areas are expected to be above normal. However, parts of northwest and some central India, as well as adjacent areas of the southern peninsula, may experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures,” he stated.
Some regions in east, northeast, and east-central India could see below-normal rainfall, whereas the remaining areas are expected to report above-normal precipitation.
Kalyan Goswami, Director General of the Agrochem Federation of India (ACFI), remarked that favorable rainfall this month could enhance kharif sowing by providing sufficient soil moisture. Farmers cultivating paddy, pulses, and oilseeds might benefit from timely sowing, which could boost rural disposable income. He anticipates an increase in area coverage for pulses and oilseeds while reducing irrigation costs and reliance on groundwater for initial land preparation.
Ankur Aggarwal, Chairman of CropLife India and Executive Chairman and Managing Director of Crystal Crop Protection Ltd, indicated that the kharif season this year faces dual risks. On one hand, the projected monsoon rainfall at 92 percent of the long-period average due to the emerging El Niño could result in delayed sowing, uneven crop growth, and increased pest and disease threats. Dry spells followed by humidity may foster conditions conducive to outbreaks of diseases such as blast and sheath blight in rice, fall armyworm and stalk rot in maize, and various pests in cotton and soybean. Meanwhile, conflicts in West Asia are impacting upstream supply chains, creating disruptions for key inputs such as methanol, ammonia, LPG, and petrochemical derivatives.
The result is increased costs and potential shortages, even as recent government measures, including customs duty exemptions, have aimed to enhance availability.
Farmers face considerable uncertainty this season, as even minor delays can significantly affect yields. Staying closely connected to the field will be critically important, especially when dry spells are followed by humidity, which can quickly lead to pest and disease outbreaks.
Published on May 1, 2026.
