Axis Securities has revised its base case December 2025 Nifty target to 24,600 due to uncertain trade policies, rupee depreciation, and relatively higher valuations. The brokerage noted that India’s VIX is currently below its long-term average, indicating a neutral market, with short-term volatility still prevalent.
In the bull case scenario, where there is an overall reduction in volatility and a successful soft landing in the US market, Nifty is valued at 21x, with a target of ₹27,000. On the other hand, in the bear case scenario, Nifty is valued at 17x, leading to a December 2025 target of 22,000. Challenges such as policy shifts in the Trump regime and inflation could impact this scenario.
Despite the challenges, valuations for large caps appear attractive, according to Axis Securities. The analysts believe that large-cap stocks, quality stocks, monopolies, and market leaders in their respective domains may outperform the market in the near term.
The brokerage has maintained its recommendations for shares of HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Dalmia Bharat, State Bank of India, HCL Tech, Lupin, Trent, Hero Motocorp, Max Healthcare, Indian Hotels, Healthcare Global, Varun Beverages, Bharti Airtel, Cholamandalam Invest and Finance, and Prestige Estates.
Additionally, the equity market is currently oversold due to factors like US trade policies, the rise in the US dollar index, and bond yields, along with a slowdown in domestic earnings growth and continued FIIs selling. However, measures like the consumption boost in the Union Budget, CRR and rate cuts, and improved liquidity could address domestic concerns.
While the market may continue to underperform relative to other markets for some time, Axis Securities remains optimistic about the long-term growth story of the Indian equity market. The report also highlights that Nifty has never recorded six consecutive months of decline.
In conclusion, Axis Securities has adjusted its Nifty targets for December 2025 based on various scenarios and factors affecting the market, while still maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the Indian equity market.
