The end of the U.S. waiver on sanctions for purchasing Russian crude oil that was already in transit is not expected to immediately disrupt shipments to India. However, refiners will need to adjust their operations to avoid sanctioned entities and vessels, which is likely to impact both volumes and costs, according to refiners and analysts.
The 30-day waiver that expired on April 11 permitted the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil loaded on tankers from March 12 to April 11. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Thursday that there would be no renewal of general licenses for Russian or Iranian oil, stating, “That was oil that was on water prior to March 11. So all that has been used.”
Refiners, analysts, and traders described the current situation as “complicated and fluid,” with multiple variables at play. While an immediate tightening of supply is expected, a severe crude shortage is not anticipated at this time.
Indian refiners will again have to re-evaluate their sourcing strategies, balancing availability, costs, logistics, and compliance with sanctions. This recalibration is likely to be operational rather than structural, affecting both purchasing and logistical costs.
A senior executive in the refining sector noted, “It’s unlikely India will completely halt Russian crude. It is not sanctioned. This means legal channels, which means higher costs. We also need to wait for more clarity on what Washington is planning next. There are too many variables playing out right now to point at a clear-cut scenario. It’s a developing situation.”
Geopolitical uncertainties, no immediate resolution to the conflict in West Asia, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz contribute to supply instability in the Middle East Gulf region. Another executive emphasized that a definitive answer will take time.
A trade source mentioned that India has a three-day window to replenish its Iranian crude supplies as the U.S. sanctions waiver expires on April 19, estimating that approximately 90 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently at sea.
One refiner indicated that the conclusion of the Iranian sanctions waiver may necessitate slight adjustments in sourcing strategies since India has not procured oil from Tehran since 2019.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas assured on Thursday that “All refineries are operating at high capacity with adequate crude inventories, while sufficient stocks of petrol and diesel are being maintained. Retail outlets across the country are operating normally.”
This article was published on April 16, 2026.
