brown and white sugar cubes | Photo Credit: opreaistock
Though the diversion for ethanol is nearly on par with the 2024-25 season, ISMA said the net sugar output may rise by 18.5 per cent from last season’s 26.11 mt, largely due to an expected 39 per cent surge in gross output from Maharashtra.
ISMA’s latest gross sugar production estimate for 2025-26 stands at 34.35 mt, slightly lower than the 34.9 mt projected in its preliminary forecast. Despite this downward revision, the association said India continues to have a comfortable sugar balance and room to export about 2 mt, as earlier suggested in July.
“With a comfortable sugar balance, India is well-positioned to export nearly 2 mt this season. We have strongly urged the government to announce the export policy at the earliest so that mills can proactively plan their raw and white sugar production strategies,” ISMA said in a statement on Tuesday.
Sugar Balance and Stock Outlook
Post-monsoon satellite imagery captured in late October indicates that sugarcane acreage in the country stands at 57.35 lakh hectares (lh), marginally higher than 57.11 lh last year.
After reviewing the findings at its Executive Committee meeting on Tuesday, ISMA released its first advance estimate, pegging gross production at 34.35 mt (before diversion).
With an opening stock of 5 mt as on October 1 and 3.4 mt diverted for ethanol, net sugar output is expected to be 30.95 mt, taking total availability to 35.95 mt — well above the domestic consumption estimate of 28.5 mt. ISMA projects a closing stock of 7.45 mt by September 30, 2026, leaving scope for 2 mt of exports.
A final decision on exports is likely after the Agriculture Ministry releases its first advance estimate of sugarcane output next week, followed by a meeting of State sugarcane commissioners around mid-November.
Maharashtra leads
In Maharashtra, sugarcane area for the 2025-26 season has increased to 14.71 lh from 13.82 lh last year. “The overall crop condition this year is notably better, supported by a higher proportion of plant cane and adequate water availability. Rainfall has been abundant, and reservoir levels are sufficient to meet crop requirements. Field observations indicate good to very good crop conditions across most regions,” ISMA said.
A combination of expanded cane area and improved yields is projected to raise gross sugar output (before diversion) in the State to around 13 mt, up from 9.35 mt last year.
UP Output Stable
In Uttar Pradesh, sugarcane acreage has declined by 3 per cent to 22.57 lh from 23.30 lh last season. However, ISMA noted that the standing crop condition is significantly better, aided by mill-level cane development efforts, timely interventions, and varietal replacement, which are expected to minimise red rot and other disease incidences.
Gross sugar production (before diversion) in UP is estimated at 10.32 mt, marginally higher than 10.1 mt in 2024–25, as both yield and recovery are expected to improve.
Karnataka Output Also Set to Rise
In Karnataka, sugarcane area has increased by about 6 per cent to 6.8 lh from 6.4 lh last season. As a result, ISMA expects gross sugar production (before diversion) to rise 16 per cent to 6.35 mt from 5.49 mt in 2024–25.
Published on November 4, 2025
