The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has revised its sugar production estimate to 26.4 million tonnes due to reduced sugarcane yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka, leading to a decrease in cane availability. The diversion of sugar towards ethanol has also been lowered to 3.5 million tonnes.
According to ISMA’s second advance estimates released on January 31, the net sugar production for the 2024-25 sugar season is projected to be 27.25 million tonnes, with a sugar diversion of 3.75 million tonnes towards ethanol. The initial estimate in November last year had placed net sugar production at 29.3 million tonnes.
As of March 10, 2025, the total sugar production for the season has reached 23.31 million tonnes, with 228 mills currently operational across the country. Uttar Pradesh leads in sugar production with 7.88 million tonnes, followed by Maharashtra with 7.81 million tonnes and Karnataka with 3.89 million tonnes.
In Uttar Pradesh, improved plant cane recovery and yield may extend the crushing season until April, while some mills in east and central Uttar Pradesh are expected to close by the end of March. Additionally, certain mills in Karnataka are anticipated to resume operations during a special season starting in June-July 2025.
The revised estimate indicates that net sugar production in Uttar Pradesh may reach 9.25 million tonnes, Maharashtra at 8.1 million tonnes, and Karnataka at 4.15 million tonnes. These three states contribute to over 80% of India’s total sugar output.
After factoring in the opening stock of 8 million tonnes at the beginning of the season and expected production, the closing stock as of September 30 is likely to be 5.4 million tonnes, with domestic consumption estimated at 28 million tonnes.
Planting for the 2025-26 season has reportedly improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka, supported by a favorable southwest monsoon in 2024 and good water availability in reservoirs. The 2025-26 crushing season is expected to commence on time in October 2025, with the closing stock by the end of the current season anticipated to be more than adequate.
Varietal replacement activity in Uttar Pradesh and other north Indian states has shown marked improvement, which is expected to result in better yields and recovery in the 2025-26 sugar season in these regions, according to ISMA’s statement.
