NEW DELHI: The Russia Sanctions Bill, which authorizes the US president to impose a punitive 500% import duty on countries that buy oil from Russia, has gained fresh momentum after Donald Trump signalled his support for the legislation.
Mint examines what the bill proposes, why it has resurfaced and what it could mean for India.
What is the Russia Sanctions Bill?
The bill, spearheaded by Republican senator Lindsey Graham, seeks to penalize countries that import petroleum products from Russia. The US government has argued that revenues from oil sales are helping finance Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Once approved by both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the legislation would empower the US president to impose tariffs of up to 500% on goods imported into the US from countries that continue to buy Russian oil.
Is this new legislation?
No. The bill has been under consideration for several months. It was first introduced in Congress in April 2025, read twice in the Senate and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. In the House of Representatives, it has been sent to multiple committees.
The proposal remained largely under the radar as Trump focused on rolling out reciprocal and other punitive tariffs, including a 25% levy on India linked to its purchases of Russian oil. At the time, the White House did not see the need for an additional legislative tool. That has now changed, with Trump publicly backing the bill.
Why has Trump backed it now?
Trump’s attempts to broker an end to the Ukraine war have repeatedly stalled, with Russia seen as dragging its feet. Analysts view his support for the bill as an effort to increase pressure on Moscow and push it towards a ceasefire.
The timing also coincides with an impending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by Trump. If the court delivers an adverse verdict, the new law could provide an alternative legal basis to continue imposing tariffs.
What are the chances of Congress passing the bill?
The bill, which had earlier lost momentum, now has a clear tailwind following Trump’s endorsement. In the 100-member Senate, it has the backing of 84 senators, well above the 51 votes required for passage.
In the House of Representatives, the bill is supported by 151 members, against the 218 needed. Experts do not see this as a major hurdle. Once Congress clears the bill, it will be up to Trump to decide when to sign it into law and how aggressively to deploy the tariff provisions.
Is the bill aimed at India?
Not explicitly. However, Trump has been frustrated by the prolonged trade negotiations with India and New Delhi’s firm stance on keeping its agriculture and dairy sectors off the table.
India’s strong economic momentum—posting 8.2% growth in the second quarter of FY26—and its flurry of trade agreements in 2025 with countries such as the UK, Oman and New Zealand appear to have compounded that frustration. US officials worry that as India rapidly diversifies its export markets, Washington’s leverage could diminish, making this a critical moment to clinch a bilateral trade deal.
How could this affect India?
If the bill becomes law and Trump chooses to invoke it, the impact on India could be severe. A flat 500% duty, without exemptions, could effectively shut down India’s $87 billion worth of exports to the US in FY25.
Such a move would sharply increase pressure on New Delhi to conclude a trade agreement with Washington. High tariffs would also deter foreign investment, as India could be seen as less competitive, potentially accelerating capital outflows and adding pressure on the rupee. India’s bargaining position in trade negotiations with other countries could weaken as well.
