Hormuz Jolt: India’s Grand Plan to Escape Global Chokepoints
NEW DELHI: The Strait of Hormuz remains technically open, but commercial shipping is far from returning to normal, according to Anil Devli, CEO of the Indian National Shipowners’ Association, which represents a significant portion of India’s shipping industry. With 14 Indian vessels currently trapped in this critical chokepoint—responsible for transporting half of India’s crude oil and most of its LPG—the risks have escalated significantly. Previous encounters with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have created apprehensions among seafarers, Devli noted.
Despite a fragile ceasefire, Iran’s blockade persists, as the United States put a pause on a three-day naval operation aimed at securing the Strait. “Technically, Hormuz is open. Vessels are transiting, but the risks for commercial traffic are still immense,” Devli explained to TOI on Wednesday. Prior to the strikes launched by the US and Israel in late February, thousands of vessels passed through the strait each month. By April, crossings plummeted to approximately 5%.
Currently, vessels navigating the Strait must avoid an intricate landscape of sanctions, IRGC patrols, and naval escorts. While it is understood that some neutral-flag vessels are transiting with Iran’s tacit approval or under US protection, “normal traffic” has come to a standstill, according to Devli.
The vessels that are moving are doing so precariously, guided by trust among countries that Iran associates as “friends,” such as Chinese-flagged bulk carriers and neutral-flagged tankers carrying cargo to impartial nations, including India. Until recently, US-flagged commercial ships had avoided the Strait entirely, with the first successful transit occurring on May 4 when two US-flagged merchant vessels crossed under the escort of US Navy guided-missile destroyers as part of Washington’s Project Freedom.
Confidence appeared to be rebuilding after the safe passage of consecutive Indian ships. However, this was shattered on April 18 when two Indian-flagged vessels were fired upon by IRGC boats: the VLCC Sanmar Herald, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, and bulk carrier Jag Arnav. An audio transmission captured the distress of the Sanmar Herald’s captain, pleading, “Sepah Navy! You gave clearance—I’m second on your list. You’re firing now! Let me turn back!” This incident prompted the Indian government to raise safety concerns with the Iranian Ambassador, further deteriorating the already fragile confidence of Indian seafarers.
The level of uncertainty among seafarers is underscored by statements made by the captain during the incident, as he reminded the Iranians of their previous clearance. In late April, a Hong Kong-linked tanker was left burning after an attempted stealth transit, amid IRGC warnings of mined waters echoing across the Strait.
There was a temporary breakthrough over the weekend when the Marshall Islands-flagged MT Sarv Shakti, carrying 46,313 tonnes of LPG for the Indian Oil Corporation and manned by 18 Indian crew members, successfully transited the Strait on May 2. This marked the first India-linked tanker to cross in nearly two weeks following severe disruptions due to failed peace talks in Islamabad on April 13 and the subsequent US naval blockade around Iranian ports.
During the peak of hostilities last month, operations at Gulf ports slowed significantly, impacting shipping supplies, food deliveries, and basic services for Indian crew members across major hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait. However, Devli indicated that the situation has since stabilized.
So far, India has facilitated the passage of eight LPG vessels through the Strait during the crisis, thanks to diplomatic efforts and close coordination among Iranian and Indian governmental agencies, naval authorities, and maritime organizations. Indian-flagged vessels are currently operating under strict government directives to comply with applicable sanctions.
The National Union of Seafarers of India (NUSI) and the Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) have advised Indian crews in the region to maintain heightened vigilance in Iranian waters and the Strait of Hormuz, avoid unnecessary shore leave, maintain communication systems, and regularly consult advisories issued by Indian authorities.
As shipowners face rising premiums to keep crews offshore, war-risk insurance costs have surged by up to 70%, adding millions of dollars in extra expenses per voyage. For Indian shipowners, particularly those with fixed-term contracts, this ongoing situation has turned financially burdensome.
