Stock markets this week are expected to be influenced by the outcomes of state elections and rising crude oil prices amid ongoing conflicts in West Asia, according to analysts.
Investor attention will be focused on developments concerning the West Asia conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Vote counting for assembly elections in five states—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry—will commence on May 4.
“The primary catalyst will be the results of these key state elections, with investors particularly interested in whether the ruling party at the Centre can take West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress and gain ground in the opposition-dominated Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has limited presence,” stated Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth.
Moreover, crude oil prices are highlighted as a crucial macroeconomic factor. “With Brent crude remaining at elevated levels due to ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the risks of inflation remain significant. For an import-dependent economy like India, persistently high crude prices can pressure the rupee—currently near record lows—and affect corporate margins along with fiscal dynamics,” Hariprasad added.
In addition, macroeconomic data releases, fourth-quarter earnings, and foreign investor trading patterns are expected to also shape stock market trends this week.
“Crude oil price movements will be the main external driver, with the persistent US–Iran standoff and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz likely to heighten volatility,” remarked Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd.
Key macrostats on the calendar include the HSBC Manufacturing PMI scheduled for May 4, the Services and Composite PMI on May 6, and foreign exchange reserves data set for release on May 8, which will provide insight into economic momentum and external sector stability.
Major corporate earnings announcements this week are anticipated from firms such as Ambuja Cements, BHEL, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Bajaj Auto.
“Markets are expected to remain volatile and highly influenced by news events. Attention will be particularly on the evolving US–Iran situation—specifically whether a ceasefire is in effect, the progress of diplomatic interactions, and any changes related to the Strait of Hormuz,” commented Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth technology firm.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, indicated that the markets are likely to react initially to the election results, especially in West Bengal, which could cause 1-2 days of volatility. He emphasized that crude oil prices will remain a major focus, noting that they have slightly cooled after previously surging toward $120 per barrel.
“Any new rise in oil prices could trigger further selling pressure on Indian equities, whereas a sustained decrease could enhance market sentiment. Developments surrounding US-Iran relations will be fundamental in driving crude price volatility. With the Q4 earnings season in full swing, sector-specific stock movements are expected to persist, along with Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows and rupee fluctuations remaining critical factors to monitor,” Meena stated.
In a shortened trading week, the BSE benchmark Sensex rose by 249.29 points, or 0.32 percent, while the NSE Nifty increased by 99.6 points, or 0.41 percent.
Published on May 3, 2026.
