Indian stocks are anticipated to open flat on Wednesday, marking the start of the new monthly series for July on the NSE. Analysts predict market volatility ahead, driven by a weakening rupee, ongoing selling by foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), and a significant rise in crude oil prices.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth has moderated to 4.8% in Q4 FY2026 from 5.3% in Q3 FY2026, primarily due to slower growth in manufacturing output, despite improvement in the electricity and mining sectors over the same period.
Hariprasad K, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, suggested that Indian markets are set to open positively, with the Gift Nifty indicating a start near the 24,110 mark. This gauge reflects early resilience in domestic equities amidst mixed and somewhat fragile global cues.
The Gift Nifty was noted at 24,090, signaling a flattish opening.
In the U.S. markets, a pullback was observed overnight, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing lower after retreating from recent record highs. This decline was largely driven by weakness in the technology sector, stemming from concerns surrounding growth expectations in artificial intelligence. The shift has introduced caution in global risk sentiment, particularly for tech-heavy indices.
Asian markets opened mixed, reflecting this uncertainty.
“Investors are weighing the influence of softer U.S. cues alongside new developments in the energy sector. Particularly noteworthy is the move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries concerning the United Arab Emirates,” Hariprasad added. “Such changes within key producer alliances could affect crude price stability, thereby keeping energy markets under scrutiny.”
Earnings reports will be crucial for stock-specific actions, with a particular focus on Bajaj Finance, perceived as a significant domestic trigger for the session. A robust performance from Bajaj Finance could help mitigate global concerns and bolster financial stocks. Other anticipated earnings include those from Federal Bank, Adani Power, and Vedanta Limited, which are expected to drive sector-specific momentum.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm, projected that Indian equity markets may experience continued volatility due to high crude prices and persisting geopolitical tensions. Brent crude prices are firm in the $110–113 per barrel range, reflecting ongoing supply disruptions and reinforcing inflation concerns.
“The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict shows little sign of resolution, with limited progress in negotiations. Continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping the risk premium elevated in the global markets, making investors cautious about potential supply shocks and their broader economic implications,” Ponmudi cautioned.
Global equities remain mixed to weaker, with high energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties dampening risk appetite. Asian markets are mirroring this cautious outlook, as volatility in oil prices and uncertainty in diplomatic scenarios keep market participants on edge.
On the flow of investments, foreign institutional investors have remained net sellers amid global risk aversion, while domestic institutional investors have been providing some support, helping to cushion downside volatility.
“Overall, sentiment appears fragile and highly responsive to news developments. Elevated crude prices, unresolved geopolitical tensions, currency pressures, and continued foreign outflows are likely to place pressure on markets, with near-term direction contingent on oil price trends and any significant progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations,” Ponmudi stated.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd, noted that while IIP growth eased in March 2026 relative to February 2026—hitting a five-month low of 4.1%—it was significantly higher than ICRA’s expectations of 1.5%. This unexpected performance was driven by healthy growth in the manufacturing and mining sectors, which increased by 4.3% and 5.5%, respectively. This stronger-than-anticipated output contrasts with the 0.4% contraction seen in core output, indicating that non-core industrial output rose robustly by 7.8%, shrugging off the expected adverse effects from the onset of the West Asia crisis.
Published on April 29, 2026.
