Russian crude oil imports by India were largely stable in October 2025, with cargoes growing almost 2.53 per cent M-o-M to around 1.62 million barrels per day (mb/d), as refiners maintained the momentum in line with rising domestic demand.
In September, the Russian crude oil imports were at 1.58 mb/d, according to global real time data and analytics firm Kpler.
The sustained flows from Moscow are also aiding Indian refiners in monetising the limited window of opportunity to sell diesel to the European Union (EU) before its January 21, 2026 deadline under latest sanctions comes into effect.
Even as Russian shipments fell by 8 per cent on an annual basis, analysts, refiners and traders indicated that the development is more about diversification rather than enforcement.
However, they said that the impact of US sanctions, announced on October 22, will reflect in New Delhi’s crude cargoes after November 21, when they come into effect. However, Imports during the current month are expected to hover in the range of 1.6-1.7 mb/d.
The US slapped sanctions on Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than 70 per cent of the crude oil imported by India. Kpler pointed out that Russia remained India’s largest crude supplier in October 2025, as expected. However, things are likely to change in the short term, beginning December 2025.
“Loadings of Russian crude bound for India have declined after October 21st, according to initial data. However, it’s still too early to draw firm conclusions, given Russia’s track record of quickly developing workarounds,” Kpler said.
Russian roulette
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline: “We will see reductions in Russian crude arrival post November 21st. Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt/ reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil.”
This is likely to trigger a sharp decline in Russian crude import in December, followed by a gradual recovery through mid-to-late January-March 2026, as new trading intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are established, he added.
“The pace of this recovery will largely depend on refiners’ ability to manage reputational risks and navigate potential OFAC scrutiny,” he pointed out.
In contrast, said Ritolia, Nayara Energy, which is partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is unlikely to alter its current procurement pattern considering its almost entirely reliant on Russian crude.
Reliance Industries (RIL) has also said that it will abide by the sanctions. Trade sources said that RIL is already making arrangements for supplies from other sources as its term contract with Rosneft would cease under the sanctions from Washington.
The US sanctions mark a significant escalation and will reshape India’s crude import strategy, which will face near-term disruption turning Russian oil—at least from Rosneft and Lukoil—into a sanctioned commodity, shifting the market dynamic from influence to enforcement, he emphasised.
“December 2025–January 2026 imports of Russian crude should see a notable dip as refiners assess the impact and rebuild supply chains. Despite short-term turbulence, a complete halt in Russian imports remains unlikely, given attractive margins and India’s geopolitical stance,” Ritolia said.
However, Kpler data also suggests that Indian refiners reduced their crude purchases from Moscow, since January 2025, when Donald Trump took oath as the US President and began pressuring India to cut imports from Moscow.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia averaged at around 1.74 mb/d during January-October 2025 compared to 1.81 mb/d during the same period last year, as per Kpler.
Diversification
“Overall, refiners are likely to broaden their import baskets, with higher inflows from Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Guyana), the United US, West Africa, and Middle East. While near-term Russian imports may dip starting in December 2025, Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries,” explained Ritolia.
However, higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities, he added.
Unless refiners themselves face direct sanctions or the Government of India imposes formal restrictions—both improbable scenarios—Russian barrels will continue flowing to India, though via more complex logistical, financial, and trading arrangements.
Published on November 5, 2025
