The price of cobalt has nearly doubled to $48,750 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange since the beginning of the year | Photo Credit: Carlos Barria
The price of cobalt, used mainly in rechargeable in the electronic sector and in electric vehicle batteries, has nearly doubled to $48,750 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange since the beginning of the year. The rise in prices has been dramatic after DRC imposed an export ban in February after they dropped to $21,000 on surplus supplies.
Congo, which accounts for 75 per cent of global exports of the critical metal, lifted the ban on October 15, but has decided to impose an export quota.
Exports cap
“In 2026, we forecast cobalt prices to average $25/lb ($55,150 a tonne) as the DRC introduces a quota regime to replace the export ban in place between February and October 2025,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. .
“The announcement of the new binding quotas, accompanied by stricter penalties for violations, pushed LME cobalt prices above $42,000/tonne. The mechanism introduced by the Congolese government aims to regulate export flows in a more structured manner,” said Luca Sazzini on Pricepedia.
Exports until the end of the year have been capped at 18,125 tonnes with shipments in October set at 3,625 tonnes, 7,250 tonnes each in November and December.
BMI said while refiners in China have been able to draw on inventories of cobalt during this Congolese ban, stocks have rapidly depleted. “The quotas will cap DRC’s exports at 96,000 tonnes in 2026 – equivalent to half its mine production in 2024,” said BMI.
Quota extension
“The tighter control of cobalt supply by the largest global exporter further increases the upside risks for LME-traded metal prices and, consequently, for physical prices, which tend to reflect both the levels and dynamics of the financial benchmark,” said Sazzini..
The quota will be extended to 2027 also, but BMI expects it to be raised to 1,20,000 tonnes. The annual cap allows direct exports of 87,000 tonnes from mining companies, and an additional strategic quota of 9,600 tonnes at the discretion of Arecoms, the national regulatory authority, he said.
Congo plans to electronically track all mineral exports to increase transparency and traceability. “It has also introduced strict compliance requirements with severe penalties for violations: companies must fully use their allocated volumes, under penalty of immediate revocation of quotas, which would then be reassigned within the strategic quota system,” said Sazzini.
Quotas may be revoked in the case of environmental violations, tax irregularities, or unauthorised transfers of quotas to third parties.
Outpur forecast
BMI has forecast global mine production at 3,00,000 tonnes in 2026. However, the quota system will result in less than 2,00,000 tonne reaching refineries in China. This will tilt “the market into a deficit as cobalt demand continues to rise”, said the research agency.
“In the DRC, we expect cobalt mine production to decline only modestly in 2026, despite the export restrictions in place. This is because Congolese cobalt is typically produced as a by-product of copper, and with no restrictions on copper exports, cobalt will continue to be produced as long as copper is,” said BMI.
Despite the introduction of a full-scale export ban on cobalt exports from February 2025, the two largest cobalt miners in the DRC -CMOC and Glencore -increased production in the first half of 2025.
The research agency said by introducing a quota system and driving up the price of cobalt, the Congolese authorities are targeting a price that encourages the construction of cobalt refineries.
Key upside risk
But the quota regime could backfire in two ways. “First, it will significantly increase the cost of cobalt for end-users, most notably battery makers,” it said. It will likely accelerate efforts already underway to reduce or eliminate cobalt in battery chemistries.
Second, Congo’s leverage over the global cobalt market will diminish in the coming years as Indonesia is ramping up its output.”Cobalt exports from Indonesia will be approximately half of Congo shipments in 2026 (55,000 tonnes vs. 96,000 tonnes), said BMI.
BMI said higher copper prices by 2027 could marginalise the relative contribution of cobalt to the Congo’s external and fiscal position. BMI said a key upside risk could be Congo retaining the quota at 96,000 tonnes in 2027 and 2028. In this scenario, prices could ease only slowly, rulign near $23 per lb ($50,700 a tonne).
Published on November 12, 2025
