NEW DELHI: Today’s Chanakya has projected a significant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal, while News18’s exit poll indicates a closer contest with a slight advantage for the BJP. In Tamil Nadu, Today’s Chanakya forecasts a majority for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies, highlighting the emergence of the Tamil Nadu Vikas Congress (TVK), led by actor Vijay, as a potential factor that may push the AIADMK-BJP alliance to a third-place finish.
According to Today’s Chanakya, the BJP is expected to secure 48% of the votes in West Bengal, compared to 38% for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), with a margin of approximately 3% for both parties. This would translate to an estimated 192 seats (with a margin of ±11) for the BJP and around 100 seats (±11) for the TMC in the 294-member assembly. In contrast, News18 predicts that the BJP will win between 143 to 163 seats, while the TMC could obtain 127 to 147 seats, with vote shares of 44% and 43% respectively.
In Tamil Nadu, Today’s Chanakya suggests that the DMK-led alliance could achieve 125 seats, while the TVK is anticipated to win 63 seats in the 234-member assembly. The forecast also indicates an advantage for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and anticipates a decisive victory for the BJP in Assam, aligning with trends observed across other exit polls.
Meanwhile, Axis My India refrained from publishing its West Bengal predictions due to an exceptionally high non-response rate, stating that around 70% of contacted voters declined to participate in the survey. “A refusal rate of this magnitude materially exceeds historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias,” the polling organization noted.
