Target Price: ₹1,520
Current Market Price: ₹828.95
Research coverage on AGI Greenpac (AGI) has been initiated with a “Buy” rating and a target price of ₹1,520 based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which equates to 19 times the earnings per share (EPS) projected for September 2027. AGI holds a leading position in the Indian container glass (CG) sector, commanding over 20% of the market share.
The CG industry has experienced significant fluctuations over the past 15 years, characterized by demand volatility, overcapacity, and spikes in input fuel costs, leading to the downfall of several players, including former market leader HNGIL. In contrast, AGI has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in revenue and 15% in EBITDA, supported by its innovative products, operational efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation, resulting in a current return profile of approximately 15%.
The outlook for the Indian CG sector appears stable, with projected volume growth of 4-5% and value growth of 8-9%. Key user industries such as Alcoholic Beverages, Food & Beverage (F&B), and pharmaceuticals are expected to see healthy growth, coupled with a favorable input cost environment as costs for soda ash and energy remain controlled. AGI plans to expand its glass production capacity by 30%, targeting approximately 2,600 tonnes per day by the end of FY27, with the construction of a new ₹700 crore facility in Madhya Pradesh. Additionally, the company is diversifying into the aluminium can segment, which has been growing at a 15% CAGR, currently dominated by two players in India.
AGI is also involved in the smaller caps and closures market as well as the PET bottle sector, which is anticipated to grow at double-digit rates from a low base. The capital expenditure phase for FY26-27 is expected to be followed by robust free cash flow generation, projecting a 2% yield for FY28E and subsequent growth thereafter.
Published on September 22, 2025
