NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) solidified its influence following a significant string of assembly election victories, including its historic win in West Bengal, where it secured over two-thirds of the seats. This rise in state assembly representation, coupled with an increasing presence in the Rajya Sabha, positions the party to play a pivotal role in next year’s presidential election. This comes after the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally fell from 303 to 240 during the 2024 elections, which had sparked doubts about its dominance since 2014.
The BJP’s remarkable hold over state assemblies, particularly with allies in major states like Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Bihar—key players in the electoral college for the presidency—will aid in mitigating the impact of its reduced Lok Sabha representation. The electoral college comprises all elected members of Parliament and state assemblies, excluding nominated legislators. While both bodies hold equal weight in voting, the value of an MLA’s vote is determined by the population size represented by their assembly, based on the 1971 census.
In 2022, the vote value for a Member of Parliament (MP) was 700, whereas a Uttar Pradesh (UP) MLA’s vote was valued at 208, almost 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA’s vote, which held a value of 7. This voting weight is expected to remain largely unchanged in the upcoming election, barring any alterations in assembly composition. The absence of a Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) assembly, dissolved in 2018, will marginally affect the overall calculation, as it was not part of the previous presidential election.
The BJP’s decline in Lok Sabha numbers resulted in a loss of 44,100 votes within the electoral college, which had a total strength of 1,086,431 in 2022. A lackluster performance in assembly elections could have jeopardized its ability to assert influence, even with the support of allies—a situation previously witnessed when the BJP relied on regional partners like the TDP and JD(U) to maintain a majority.
Following the Lok Sabha elections, which drew criticism from opposition parties dubbing these alliances as “crutches” for survival, speculations arose regarding the government’s stability. However, two years later, the BJP is reportedly in a strong position. The party achieved substantial victories in Haryana and experienced a surge in its numbers in Maharashtra, increasing its count from over 150 to 237 out of 288 assembly seats. Similarly, its presence in the Bihar assembly rose from 125 to 202 out of a total of 243 seats, and in West Bengal, it has grown to 207 MLAs compared to 77 previously.
Looking ahead to the presidential elections set for July next year, Uttar Pradesh’s substantial weight, contributing over 83,800 votes in the electoral college, will be critical.
