A series of well-timed market bets on declining oil prices, totaling up to $7 billion during March and April, spanned multiple exchanges and fuel derivatives, coinciding with significant Iranian policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to traders, market analysts, and Reuters’ examination of exchange data.
This figure surpasses the previously reported bets of $2.6 billion, which prompted warnings from U.S. officials urging staff not to leverage nonpublic information for financial gain. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating this situation, although it has not yet confirmed any official probe.
Exchanges and Instruments Under Scrutiny
Reuters has not been able to identify the individuals behind these trades or determine their origin. The activities included short positions—trades betting that prices would decrease—spanning derivatives such as ICE and CME crude, diesel, and gasoline futures.
The bets were executed on two major platforms that facilitate global oil and fuel futures trading: the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Both exchanges declined to provide any commentary. However, a source indicated that the CME is actively investigating these trades.
Suspicious Timing Before Policy Announcements
Traders first noted unusual trading patterns on March 23, just minutes before Trump announced a delay in anticipated attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which subsequently caused oil prices to drop.
The pattern recurred on April 7, shortly before Trump declared a ceasefire with Iran, leading to a decrease of as much as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent futures. This trend continued on April 17, correlating with discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and again on April 21 when Trump extended the ceasefire.
Reuters and other media reported these trades primarily involved the most actively traded front-month contracts for the global crude benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Estimates indicate that the value of these trades across the four critical days in March and April amounted to approximately $2.6 billion.
Regulatory Probes and Unanswered Questions
As of now, neither the U.S. Justice Department, CFTC, nor the White House has responded to requests for comment regarding the investigations.
Published on May 7, 2026.
