Markets closed on a positive note on Monday, reflecting a mixed sentiment characterized by a sharp intraday reversal and a record-low value for the rupee.
The Nifty 50 ended at 24,119, gaining 121 points or 0.51 percent after reaching an intraday high of 24,290. However, midday selling nearly halved these gains before a partial recovery late in the session. The Sensex finished at 77,269, up 356 points or 0.46 percent.
The morning rally was bolstered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s success in three of five state assembly elections, favorable global market cues, a decline in crude oil prices from previous week’s highs, and robust data on auto sales for April. Maruti Suzuki revealed a 33.3 percent year-on-year increase in wholesale volumes, while overall two-wheeler sales surged 38 percent year-on-year. Nevertheless, the market faced resistance near the 24,290–24,300 range, prompting significant profit booking within the first half-hour of trading.
The rupee depreciated for the fourth consecutive session, falling by 18 paise to reach a record low, with the USD/INR rate fluctuating between 94.8 and 95.1. Pressures from a strong dollar, high crude prices, and ongoing foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows led analysts to predict a potential range of 95.35 to 95.70 in the near term.
Brent crude approached $111 per barrel, while WTI was near $105, remaining volatile amidst ongoing US-Iran negotiations and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. COMEX gold prices slipped below $4,600 per ounce, with silver prices also falling under $75, both nearing one-month lows, as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Within sector performance, Realty stocks led with an increase over 2.4 percent, followed by gains in Metals, Healthcare, and Pharmaceuticals. Conversely, the IT and Media sectors lagged behind. Notable gainers in the Nifty included Adani Ports and Eicher Motors, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bharti Airtel faced selling pressure. Broader market indices outperformed, with the Midcap 100 gaining 0.63 percent and the Smallcap 100 increasing by 0.70 percent. Market breadth favored the bullish sentiment, with 352 of the Nifty 500 stocks closing in positive territory.
The Nifty’s daily chart revealed a thin-bodied candle with a prominent upper wick, marking the fourth occurrence of this pattern in seven sessions, indicating persistent selling pressure at elevated levels. The index is consolidating around its 50-day EMA, positioned at approximately 24,185, with support identified at 23,800 and resistance at 24,300–24,400. Meanwhile, April’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections reached a record ₹2.43 lakh crore, marking an 8.7 percent year-on-year increase, providing some reassurance on the demand front.
Looking ahead, developments in US-Iran relations remain the primary factor influencing crude prices, which in turn could affect the rupee and corporate profit margins. A breakthrough in negotiations may provide significant relief, whereas further escalation could pose risks. In the absence of clearer signals, the Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 23,800 to 24,300, with heightened stock-specific volatility anticipated during the upcoming Q4 earnings season.
Published on May 4, 2026.
