Oil prices experienced an increase on Thursday, following reports that the United States is considering military action against Iran to end ongoing negotiations regarding the war. This situation has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions to already diminished West Asian exports.
As of 0347 GMT, Brent crude futures for June rose by $5.27, or 4.5 percent, to reach $123.30 a barrel, after a 6.1 percent rise in the previous session. This June contract, which is set to expire on Thursday, has seen price increases for nine consecutive days. Meanwhile, the more actively traded July contract stood at $113.10, up $2.66, or 2.4 percent, following a 5.8 percent gain earlier.
US West Texas Intermediate futures for June increased by $2.42, or 2.3 percent, reaching $109.30 a barrel after an earlier climb of 7 percent. These benchmarks are on track for their fourth consecutive month of gains.
According to an Axios report on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on plans for potential military strikes on Iran, aimed at encouraging the country to return to negotiations over its nuclear program. Tensions escalated when the US and Israel initiated airstrikes on Iran on February 28, prompting Iran to restrict nearly all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for energy supplies from West Asian nations. A ceasefire has momentarily paused active fighting, while the US has maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.
Current negotiations to resolve the conflict, which has resulted in significant casualties and is perceived by analysts as the largest energy disruption in history, have stalled. The US insists on discussions regarding Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program, while Iran seeks control over the Strait and reparations for war-related damages.
“The oil market has shifted from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruptions we are witnessing in the Persian Gulf,” stated analysts at ING in a note.
In a further indication that energy supply disruptions may persist, Trump discussed strategies with oil companies on how to mitigate the likely impacts of a potential prolonged US blockade, according to a White House official. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore emphasized the low prospects for a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, is expected to agree to a modest increase in oil output quotas, approximately 188,000 barrels per day, in a meeting scheduled for Sunday, as reported by Reuters. This meeting follows the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which may hinder the organization’s ability to regulate prices. Although this withdrawal allows the UAE to increase production after resuming exports, analysts believe it is unlikely to significantly influence market fundamentals this year, particularly in light of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other production interruptions caused by the war.
According to Wood Mackenzie analysts, “Gulf countries, including the UAE, will take months to return to pre-war production levels.”
Published on April 30, 2026.
