India’s imports of Russian crude oil are projected to decline significantly to a near four-year low early next year, following increased pressure from the United States. Despite this anticipated drop, new workarounds are emerging, and Russian diplomatic efforts are steadily increasing, raising questions about the sustainability of this decrease.
Historically, India has benefited from sanctions on Russian oil, becoming the largest importer of seaborne Russian crude, with imports reaching approximately 2.1 million barrels per day in June, or about 45% of its total oil intake. However, forecasts indicate that imports from Russia could fall to around 600,000 barrels a day next month, the lowest level since early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to industry sources.
The decline is attributed to the Trump administration’s intensified campaign against Russian oil purchases, which have been criticized as financial support for the Kremlin’s military actions. Sanctions targeting major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC have further complicated trade relations. According to sources who requested anonymity, the overall flow of oil has not ceased entirely, though the threat of future disruptions has pushed November imports down to 1.8 million barrels a day as companies rushed to secure shipments before sanctions took hold.
December is expected to see imports of 1 to 1.2 million barrels a day, as noted by Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining and modeling at Kpler. Despite no formal guidance issued by Prime Minister Modi’s government regarding Russian crude, state refiners are exercising caution, with some, including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy, ceasing purchases altogether. Others like Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp are limiting their intake of non-sanctioned volumes.
The main uncertainties lie ahead. While President Vladimir Putin recently visited Delhi to advocate for continued fuel shipments, his discussions on oil were notably scant, reflecting India’s precarious balancing act between maintaining its historical ties with Russia and avoiding backlash from the U.S. Moreover, the delay in finalizing a trade deal with the U.S. may reduce India’s urgency to align with Washington’s stance.
Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, remarked that U.S. sanctions create obstacles but won’t eliminate trade entirely, especially given that many buyers view Russian crude as a suitable product at an appealing price. As sanctions have tightened since July, starting with European penalties on Nayara Energy Ltd., the subsequent introduction of U.S. tariffs has complicated logistical approaches but has not severed supply lines completely.
Analysts suggest that if U.S. negotiations do not progress, new pathways for acquiring Russian oil may develop, allowing for compliant channels to facilitate trade. June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, pointed out that the longer negotiations stagnate, the more avenues will likely arise for Indian entities to procure non-sanctioned Russian oil.
To compensate for potential shortfalls, Indian refiners are now looking to more expensive Middle Eastern oil and increasing their U.S. purchases, with explorations extending to regions like Guyana and Brazil to make up for lost Russian supplies. Meanwhile, Russia is facing reduced revenue, with crude prices dropping to approximately $40-$45 per barrel post-discount.
Although January will likely mark a pronounced dip in Russian crude imports, the pace of recovery will depend on multiple factors, including the willingness of the U.S. to adjust tariffs and the swift emergence of alternative procurement strategies. Recently, new intermediaries such as Eastimplex Stream FZE and Tyndale Solutions FZE have been observed in shipping Russian crude to Indian ports, indicating a potential shift in trading dynamics.
The future of Russian oil imports into India may largely hinge on Reliance Industries, which has recently halted purchases for its export-oriented facility, complying with applicable sanctions. However, it maintains a term deal with Rosneft that could potentially deliver an additional 350,000 barrels a day in January, underscoring the complexity of the evolving trade landscape.
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Published on December 6, 2025.
