Copper prices are expected to stay within a range for the remainder of 2025, with analysts indicating a potential support level around $10,000 per tonne. This outlook is attributed to ongoing supply disruptions and positive expectations regarding global demand.
As of now, three-month copper contracts are trading at $10,806 per tonne, while spot prices are approximately $10,797. Research agency BMI, a branch of Fitch Solutions, has slightly revised its 2025 average copper price forecast, increasing it to $9,650 per tonne from a previous forecast of $9,500. This adjustment reflects the continued impact of supply disruptions and a favorable sentiment towards global demand.
Ewa Manthey, Commodity Strategist at ING Think, noted that while short-term demand indicators present mixed signals, supply disruptions are expected to maintain a price floor around $10,000 per tonne. Average copper prices have risen 4.6% thus far in 2025, fluctuating between $8,500 and $10,300 per tonne. The Australian Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) predicts an increase from $9,550 per tonne in 2025 to an estimated $10,100 per tonne by 2027.
BMI highlighted that copper has benefited from the resilience of the U.S. economy, which continues to perform better than expected despite concerns regarding job growth. The agency anticipates another monetary policy cut in October, suggesting that easing policies could stimulate economic activity and growth approaching 2026. Increased foreign investment in the U.S., linked to trade agreements established in 2025, is expected to bolster industrial demand for copper and enhance market sentiment, benefiting speculative investments in the metal.
In H1 2025, global copper inventories fell by 8.1%, primarily driven by significant reductions in Q2. Key exchange inventories—such as the London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX—declined by 16%, contributing to the overall decrease. Notably, LME copper inventories have decreased by 180,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, although COMEX inventories have seen a rise of 105,000 tonnes.
Manthey stated that copper has outperformed other base metals in 2025, with prices increasing by over 20% year-to-date despite concerns regarding trade tensions potentially harming global growth. The rise in copper prices is correlated with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s initiation of a monetary easing cycle, coupled with supply disruptions, including the recent force majeure declaration by Freeport for Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest.
BMI cautions that geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties between China and the U.S. may continue to dampen market sentiment. In October, China announced export controls on rare earths, prompting the U.S. to threaten 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which could also limit copper prices in late 2025 and into 2026.
The AOCE forecasts strong global copper demand driven by the needs of clean energy technologies, data centers, and electricity infrastructure. However, the development of new mines is slow, and trade barriers are likely to disrupt scrap metal supplies, leading to a supply deficit.
To sustain the upward movement in prices, Manthey indicated that strong demand growth, particularly from China—the largest copper consumer—is necessary. In the near term, however, copper prices are anticipated to remain within the specified range.
Regarding long-term expectations, BMI and Manthey from ING Think maintain a bullish outlook for copper. The AOCE predicts that strong and increasingly inelastic demand for copper will keep inventories low in relation to consumption during the forecast period, rendering the market sensitive to supply disruptions or unexpected demand surges.
Consequently, prices are anticipated to rise over the projection period from 2025 to 2029, averaging $10,100 per tonne by 2027.
Published on October 24, 2025.
