As gross sugar production in the upcoming season, commencing in October, is projected to reach 36 million tonnes (mt), the government is expected to permit 1 mt for export without compromising a higher closing stock of 6 mt in 2025-26, up from an anticipated 4.5 mt in the 2024-25 season, according to Praful Vithalani, Chairman of Jagjivan Keshavji (JK) group.
In an interview with businessline, Vithalani stated, “Based on our estimates, sugar consumption for the 2024-25 season is forecasted at 28.8 million tonnes, with the expected closing stock on September 30, 2025, calculated at 4.5 mt.” He further explained that the general consensus anticipates a sugar production of 36 mt (based on sucrose) for the following season (2025-26). “We estimate that 31 mt of sucrose will be designated for sugar production, with 1 mt set aside for exports, although current global price parity is lacking. This will allow for a closing stock of 6 mt by September 30, 2026,” Vithalani added.
Regarding the remaining 5 mt from the total production, Vithalani noted it should be redirected towards ethanol. He called for an increase in the minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar by at least 20 percent, proposing a rise from Rs 31/kg to Rs 37/kg, aimed at safeguarding the interests of farmers, the sugar industry, and other stakeholders.
At a recent annual gathering organized by the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the industry body’s president, Gautam Goel, presented three primary requests to Food Minister Pralhad Joshi: an increase in sugar MSP, a revision of ethanol pricing, and permission to export 2 mt of sugar. Joshi did not commit to any specifics but assured that appropriate decisions would be made to protect the interests of sugarcane farmers, consumers, and mills.
Based on current crop acreage and conditions, businessline estimates that sugarcane production in 2025-26 will increase by 8 percent to 487 mt. The Agriculture Ministry is anticipated to issue the first advance estimates for crop production, including sugarcane, in the first week of October.
In terms of sugar consumption, ISMA released a report indicating that national consumption is projected at 28 mt for the current season (October-September), marking a 10 percent increase from levels observed in 2018-19. Domestic sugar sales are regulated by the government through a monthly release order system, with an allocation of 27.55 mt for the 2024-25 season. Although some mills exceeded their quotas by selling more than permitted, others required deadline extensions after failing to sell their full allocation within the designated timeframe.
The ISMA report forecasts steady growth in overall sugar consumption in India at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5-2 percent from 2024-25 to 2029-30, primarily driven by expansion in end-use industries. It notes that institutional sugar consumption will remain dominant, while retail consumption will show relatively flat growth due to increasing health concerns and diabetes awareness. Within institutional sectors, demand for beverages is expected to grow moderately, alongside rising consumption of ice cream and confectionery following a GST reduction on confectionery items.
Other processed foods may face challenges due to sugar reduction efforts but could benefit from reduced GST rates, decreasing from 12-18 percent to 5 percent, while consumption in the hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) sector is projected to rise in line with increasing incomes.
The share of institutional buyers in overall consumption rose to 60-65 percent in 2023-24, up from 50-55 percent in 2018-19. Moreover, per capita sugar consumption remains stagnant at approximately 19-20 kg (pure sugar) or 23-25 kg (including alternatives). However, government quota systems and weather variability contribute to year-on-year consumption volatility.
Published on September 19, 2025.
