The Indian government is prepared to collaborate with Donald Trump’s administration to identify and repatriate its citizens living illegally in the United States. This marks an early indication from New Delhi of its intention to align with the incoming American administration in an effort to prevent a trade conflict.
Officials in the US have identified approximately 18,000 undocumented Indian migrants slated for deportation, with India set to verify these cases and initiate the repatriation process. However, this number may be an underestimate, as the actual count of undocumented Indians in the US remains uncertain, according to sources who requested anonymity due to the confidential nature of the discussions.
Young people from western India, particularly from Punjab and Gujarat, are believed to make up a significant portion of the undocumented population in the US.
To avoid provoking trade threats from the Trump administration, India is discreetly striving to ensure cooperation. Tackling illegal immigration has been a prominent campaign promise for Trump, who wasted no time in implementing related measures upon taking office, such as efforts to end birthright citizenship and mobilizing resources at the US-Mexico border.
India hopes that by cooperating on deportations, the Trump administration will safeguard legal immigration pathways for Indian citizens, including student visas and the H-1B program for skilled professionals. Statistics indicate that Indian nationals accounted for nearly three-fourths of all H-1B visas issued in 2023.
A lack of responsiveness in addressing the undocumented migrant issue could potentially jeopardize India’s labor and mobility agreements with various nations. With a domestic jobs shortage, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has entered into migration agreements with multiple countries, including Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Israel.
The topic of illegal immigration has been raised in initial discussions between India and the US. On a recent occasion, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Washington, where Rubio highlighted the Trump administration’s eagerness to strengthen economic ties while tackling the issue of irregular migration.
In this context, a spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal, stated, “As part of India-US cooperation on migration and mobility, both sides are engaged in a process to deter illegal migration to create more avenues for legal migration from India to the US.” He referred to an October charter flight that repatriated Indian nationals as a result of this cooperation.
Despite being a relatively modest source of undocumented migrants—accounting for around 3% of all unlawful entries recorded by US border patrol in fiscal 2024—India’s share of undocumented individuals in the US has been rising. Notably, there has been a significant increase in crossings at the northern US border, where Indians now represent nearly a quarter of all undocumented entries.
Harsh Pant, a professor of International Relations at King’s College London, commented on India’s capacity to address issues with the Trump administration, pointing out that illegal immigration is an area where India can effectively show progress. However, achieving consensus on trade might be complicated due to broader structural challenges and differing levels of economic development between the two countries.
While the exact number of undocumented Indians in the US is unknown, a report from the Department of Homeland Security estimated around 220,000 unauthorized Indian immigrants residing in the country as of 2022.
India has proactively demonstrated a willingness to assist US border enforcement, including during the Biden administration. The recent repatriation flight carrying over 100 Indian citizens was in addition to more than 1,100 individuals deported in the prior year.
Addressing the challenge of undocumented migration could also align with Modi’s agenda to discourage secessionist movements abroad, such as the Khalistan campaign seeking an independent Sikh state within India. Authorities believe some proponents of this movement in the US and Canada may be undocumented migrants.
Although Modi has established a friendly rapport with Trump and expressed support for the new administration, there remains cautious optimism about unpredictable actions from the US president that could escalate into a costly trade dispute. Trump has frequently expressed dissatisfaction with India’s high import tariffs, insisting they disadvantage American companies and pledging to impose retaliatory duties on India.
On his first day in office, Trump focused on immediate neighboring countries, indicating his intention to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Mexico and Canada by February, citing these countries for allegedly allowing large numbers of migrants into the United States. His critical remarks about Canada, in particular, described it as a major offender regarding fentanyl and unauthorized crossings at the US border.
While the reasons for the increased number of unauthorized Indian migrants crossing the northern border remain unclear, factors may include the cessation of visa-free travel to El Salvador for Indians in 2023 and the relative ease of transit to Canada. Further insights into this trend can be obtained from research conducted by the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based think tank.
