Gold’s upward momentum in 2025 is expected to continue as the macro backdrop remains favorable, with various factors contributing to the precious metal’s projected rise in value. Analysts predict that gold prices will average at $2,500/oz in 2025, with strong support likely to persist in the short to medium term.
One of the key drivers of gold prices is the Federal Reserve’s policy pace, particularly in response to the outcome of the US presidential election. The potential inflationary impact of Trump’s policies may lead to fewer rate cuts than anticipated, affecting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Lower bond yields could attract investment into gold, especially if the US economy shows resilience in 2025.
Central bank purchases of gold are also expected to continue, as some countries seek to diversify their foreign reserves amidst geopolitical tensions. Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to persist as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, supporting the overall demand for gold.
In terms of Trump’s policies, inflation is forecasted to ease in 2025, affecting gold demand as a hedge against inflation. The return of Trump to the US presidency could lead to increased global trade tensions, impacting economies with significant trade surpluses with the US.
Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to range between $2,200/oz and $2,600/oz over Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with an average price of $2,760/oz predicted for the year. The Australian Office of the Chief Economist projects a slight decrease in gold prices in 2026, with an average of nearly $2,300/oz.
Overall, the outlook for gold in 2025 appears positive, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions. Investors will closely monitor developments in the global economy and policy decisions that could impact gold prices in the coming months.
