Tea exports from India to the United States are projected to decline by 30-40 percent in the 2025 calendar year due to a 50 percent tariff imposed by the Trump administration. This information was shared by experts at the India International Tea Convention held in Kochi.
In 2024, India exported 16.5 million kilograms of tea, valued at $92.1 million, to the US. As of July 2025, exports had reached 9.6 million kilograms, with forecasts suggesting a decrease to between 10-12 million kilograms for the entirety of 2025. Dan Bolton, founder of Tea Journey Magazine and Tea Biz, presented these insights during a session on Tea and Global Market Dynamics.
Bolton noted that the global trade environment is facing significant changes, moving away from the post-war rule-based system, which was originally grounded in multilateralism and the World Trade Organization. This shift is now characterized by transnationalism and mercantilism.
James Suranga Perera, Executive Director of the International Tea Committee, highlighted the necessity of enhancing domestic tea consumption in India. As the country stands as the second-largest producer and consumer of tea globally, even minor improvements in domestic demand could significantly benefit the industry. Projections for Indian tea production in 2025 estimate a total of 1.2 billion kilograms, reflecting a modest increase compared to the previous year.
Several speakers discussed the existing mismatch between production and consumption in the global tea market. Perera indicated that global tea production has surpassed demand, with an estimated surplus of over 100 million kilograms.
In 2024, India’s total tea exports reached 256.2 million kilograms, marking a 10.6 percent increase from the previous year. The total export value amounted to Rs 7,167.41 crore, which was a 16.34 percent rise compared to 2023.
The session also featured contributions from George Omuga, Managing Director of the East African Tea Trade Association; Mohamed R Heiza, Director of MISR Vision for Solutions; Mohit Agarwal, Director of The Asian Tea Group; and Anil R Cooke from Asia Siyaka Commodities Ltd.
Published on September 19, 2025.
