The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite indices have experienced gains for the third consecutive week. Each of the Dow and S&P 500 rose over 0.7 percent, while NASDAQ outperformed significantly with a surge of 2.2 percent. The benchmark indices achieved new highs before retracting some of their gains towards the week’s conclusion.
In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable rise in the latter half of the week. This movement was prompted by the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, during which rates were cut by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, as anticipated.
Dow Jones (47,562.87)
The Dow Jones approached the psychological level of 48,000 but failed to sustain upward momentum. It reached a peak of 48,040.64 before retreating. The overall outlook remains bullish, with strong support around 47,000. A potential dip to test this support level this week is feasible, though a fall below 47,000 appears unlikely without a significant negative catalyst. A rebound around 47,000 would maintain a bullish perspective, fostering a potential rise beyond 48,000, with targets set at 49,000 to 49,500 in the medium term. The band between 47,000 and 46,800 represents a critical support zone; a decline below 46,800 would shift the outlook to bearish, introducing the possibility of a drop toward 46,000 or lower.
S&P 500 (6,840.19)
The S&P 500 index surpassed 6,800 and reached 6,900, aligning with expectations. It recorded a new high at 6,920.34 before retracting. Currently, the range between 6,800 and 6,770 serves as a vital support area. Sustaining above this zone is crucial to uphold a bullish outlook. Resistance at 6,900 is presently holding; a sustained movement above this level is necessary to propel the index toward 7,000. Conversely, failure to break through 6,900, coupled with a decline below 6,770, could trigger a negative short-term outlook. In such a scenario, there may be a risk of a decline to 6,650 to 6,600. Thus, the levels at 6,770 and 6,900 are critical for determining the next directional move.
NASDAQ Composite (23,724.96)
The NASDAQ Composite’s ascent to 24,000 occurred faster than anticipated, peaking at 24,020 before pulling back. Immediate support is identified around 23,480, followed by critical supports at 23,300 and 23,000. The outlook remains bullish while the index holds above 23,000. A rise to 24,400 to 24,500 appears likely in the near term. A decisive break above 24,500 could further accelerate bullish momentum, potentially lifting the index to 26,000 in the medium term. A break below 23,000, however, could shift the near-term outlook to negative, with a risk of falling to 22,500. The overall bullish perspective would only falter below 22,500.
Dollar Outlook
The dollar index, which currently stands at 99.80, found support in the 98.65-98.45 range last week. Immediate resistance exists at approximately 99.85. A decisive breakout above this level could propel the dollar index toward 100.50 initially, with potential further gains if breaking above 100.50, targeting 101.20. Support levels are seen at 99.20 and 98.40, while a downturn below 98.40 would indicate a negative trend, particularly if resistance at 99.85 is not breached.
Treasury Yield
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, currently at 4.08 percent, initially dipped to 3.97 percent but then recovered. Support for the yield is now delineated at around 4.05 percent. As long as the yield stays above this level, the outlook remains positive. Immediate resistance is situated at 4.15 percent; breaking above this could see the yield rise to 4.2 percent and potentially higher. Conversely, a decline below 4.05 percent would renew pressure on the yield, reviving the possibility of a drop to 3.95 percent or lower.
Fed Meeting
The Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points aligned with market expectations. However, the central bank surprised analysts by suggesting that another 25-basis-point cut in December is not guaranteed. This uncertainty has contributed to the uptick in the dollar index and Treasury yields. For the Fed to justify another rate reduction in December, more economic data will be required. Given the ongoing government shutdown, new data releases may be stalled, making it likely that the Fed could hold rates steady in its December meeting.
Published on November 1, 2025
