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Emkay Global Research points to a general optimism regarding a recovery in the second half of the year, especially in sectors affected by GST, impacting affordability positively. This reinforces a consumption-driven overweight (OW) stance on the broader market, maintaining a Nifty target of 28,000 for September 26.
In parallel, foreign portfolio investors have shifted to a positive outlook last week.
FIIs Likely to Maintain Inflows Amid Strong Growth
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, stated, “Moving forward, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are expected to reduce their selling and may transition to buyers, spurred by signs of a turnaround in the Indian market. India’s GDP growth has shown a robust rebound in Q1, supported by reforms such as budget tax cuts, rate reductions by the MPC, and GST rationalization that could help maintain growth momentum. Although earnings growth is projected to be modest at 8 to 10 percent for FY26, there’s potential for over 15 percent growth in FY27. The market will soon start factoring this in, setting the stage for a rally that could bring the Nifty to a new record this year. In this context, FIIs are likely to turn buyers in India.”
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Global Sentiment
Investor confidence has increased as expectations rise that the Federal Reserve will soon lower rates, driven by signs of a softening labor market and a more conciliatory tone from policymakers, according to a note from Vested Finance.
Derivatives Data Indicates Bullish Sentiment
The derivatives market is also reflecting a relatively bullish sentiment.
Dhupesh Dhameja, a Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, noted that derivatives data indicates sustained optimism as put writers dominate over call writers. The 25,500 strike saw significant open interest buildup of 1.24 crore contracts, establishing it as a strong resistance level. Conversely, the 25,000 strike saw the highest put open interest of 1.93 crore contracts, solidifying its position as a strong support level.
Fresh put writing at these levels suggests limited confidence in a sharp decline, while increased call writing at higher out-of-the-money strikes points to early signs of optimism. “The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose from 1.18 to 1.32, indicating a bullish trend and the possibility of sustained momentum, although intermittent profit-taking should not be discounted,” he added.
Published on September 15, 2025
