The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 89.95 against the US dollar on Tuesday. Last week, it was indicated that the rupee might stabilize between 89 and 89.60 for a period before possibly dropping to 90. However, this decline occurred without the anticipated consolidation phase, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has refrained from market intervention.
The domestic currency has weakened over the past week despite a decline in the dollar’s value. The dollar index, which started at approximately 100.25, has dropped to around 99.45 during the last week.
The outlook for the Indian rupee is bearish, with the potential for a decline below 90 in the near term. Analysts predict that the rupee could see levels between 90.25 and 90.50. However, there is a possibility of a recovery towards 89.80 afterward.
Immediate support for the rupee is identified at 89.65. If the RBI chooses to intervene around the significant psychological level of 90, it may help elevate the rupee above 89.65, paving the way for a recovery to levels between 89.20 and 89.
Rising US Yields
The US 10-year Treasury Yield, which stands at 4.11 percent, began the week strongly and has shown an upward trend. The key resistance level is identified between 4.15 and 4.2 percent. A breakthrough at 4.2 percent could facilitate further increases, potentially reaching 4.3 percent or higher. Rising Treasury yields may also bolster the dollar index.
Dollar Outlook
The dollar index, currently at 99.45, has robust support in the 99-98.50 range, with a fall below 98.50 deemed unlikely. As long as the index remains above 98.50, the bias is expected to stay bullish. Predictions suggest that the dollar index could rebound to levels of 100.50 and even reach between 101 and 101.20 in the following weeks, either from its current position or after a dip to 98.50.
Published on December 2, 2025
